Analysis and Forecast of Commercial Vehicle Engine and Piston Market in 2009

Due to the advent of the financial crisis, the commercial vehicle market was directly affected. The implementation of the National III Standard was implemented in July 2008. From then on, the commercial vehicle engine market was also depressed.

According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the growth rates in 2008 and 2007 were 11.10% and 12.56% respectively. Compared with the increase of both sales and sales in the middle of this year, they were both above 20%. Divided by fuel type, the year-on-year increase was 13.93% and 16.30% respectively. Although the increase in the production of diesel engines is still higher than that of gasoline engines, the growth rate of the diesel engine market has also surpassed that of gasoline engines. In the case of gasoline engines, cumulative production and sales volume in the first 10 months of 2008 were 403,000 units and 360,900 units respectively. In December, due to the company's annual goal of sprinting, the country's expansion of investment, and the impact of stimulating the domestic demand policy, will show a warming trend. In 2008, the sales volume of commercial vehicles increased by 2.4% and 2.25% compared with the 2007 production and sales volume. Divided by fuel type, diesel engines respectively produced 2.11 million 10,000 units and 2.1 million units of production and sales. In terms of gasoline engines, the cumulative production and sales volume were respectively 450,000 units and 440,000 units. According to the ratio of main engine and maintenance 1:0.6, the production and sales of the piston repair market for commercial vehicle engines in 2008 was: the production and sales of pistons were around 9.216 million and 9.18 million.

In 2009, due to the deterioration of the global economy and the economic difficulties in the domestic auto industry, there are bound to be opportunities in the crisis. Despite the international uncertainties, the domestic government will stimulate domestic demand and expand investment to bring new opportunities for development. According to the meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee According to the content, in 2009, maintaining the steady and rapid economic development as the primary task of next year's economic work will better integrate growth guarantee, domestic demand expansion, and structural adjustment, and take the promotion of development mode change and structural adjustment as a response to the domestic and international environment. The fundamental way out for change and sustainable development is to continuously emancipate the mind, innovate in institutional mechanisms, and strive to improve people’s livelihood and promote harmony and stability. We must adhere to flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, pay attention to the comprehensive use of tax reductions, and expand central government investment, and other means to increase protection of people's livelihood, expand domestic demand, and transform development methods and structures. Adjustment support. We must actively expand consumption, especially in rural areas, insist on expanding investment scale and optimizing the structure, and concentrate on accelerating the construction and start-up of a number of major projects that support “three rural issues”, improve people’s livelihood, improve infrastructure, promote structural optimization, and save energy and environmental protection. Effectively, orderly and effectively doing post-disaster recovery and reconstruction work. Therefore, in 2009, commercial vehicle and commercial vehicle engine and piston companies that have close relationship with production materials already have relatively good development opportunities and conditions.

Due to the attributes of commercial vehicle production data, some automobile analysts have roughly judged the relationship between commercial vehicle demand and IFA according to the model: for every 10 billion yuan increase in fixed asset investment, the corresponding demand for trucks will increase by 15,000 vehicles. Therefore, for every 10 billion yuan increase in fixed asset investment, the corresponding demand for trucks will increase by 15,000 vehicles. By the end of 2010, the national investment will reach 4 trillion yuan and the corresponding demand for trucks will reach 6 million. Therefore, it is conservatively estimated that in 2009, due to the expansion of investment by the country and the expansion of domestic demand, the production and sales volume of the commercial vehicle market will exceed 3 million, an increase of about 17% year-on-year.

The market for commercial vehicle engines is calculated at 17% year-on-year growth. In 2009, the commercial vehicle engine market will reach 2,995,200 units and 2,985,500 units respectively. According to the type of fuel, the production and sales volume of diesel engines will reach 2,468,700 units and 2,457,000 units, respectively, and the cumulative production and sales volume of gasoline engines will be about 526,500 units.

Huicong Deng Boshi's research believes that in 2009, the domestic market has a clear momentum of competition, and commercial vehicle engine and commercial vehicle piston companies will face unprecedented opportunities and challenges. Pistons of commercial vehicles, commercial vehicle engines and commercial vehicles should pay close attention to market dynamics, strengthen independent innovation, accelerate the pace of product structure adjustment and upgrade, and meet new opportunities and challenges.

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