On February 4, the State Council convened relevant state ministries and commissions, and government departments across the country to convene a video teleconference on the excessive control of certain industries. At this meeting, Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan said: "The prevention of excessive investment in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and cement industries is an important measure for the Party Central Committee and the State Council to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, and maintain the stable and rapid development of the national economy."

What is surprising is that the auto industry, which has been warned by the central government since last year to be overheated, has not been ruled as an over-invested industry. The meeting was generally considered to be the central government's judgment on over-investment in some industries. At the same time, it will adopt strict control measures on industries that have been ruled overheated.

In fact, this also shows that the central government has determined that the development of the automobile industry in recent years is healthy. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the automobile industry affected by the policy.

On February 6, news from those close to the automobile industry policy development department stated that the "Automobile Industry Development Policy" will be officially unveiled in March. In the past year, the news that the policy is "coming soon" has been heard. However, only listening to the stairs sounded but people did not come down.

At the same time, in order to complement this policy, there will be a series of supporting policies that will gradually debut for the robust growth of the domestic automotive industry. Remarkably, the source shows that the automobile consumption policy will no longer be introduced. The reason is that "the government is worried about misleading consumption."

Under the central government's affirmation of the development of the automotive industry and the influence of this policy, it can be determined that the media will also set off discussions in the auto industry on protecting the domestic auto industry, on independent research and development, and on restricting foreign auto makers. It is not clear how the effects of these topics are discussed year after year, but we are sincerely and sincerely hope that this industry development policy will play its due role for the Chinese automobile industry.

The Central Government has not ruled that the car is overheated

At the beginning of last year, Zeng Peiyan warned that overheating occurred in some industries, including automotive manufacturing.

Then, the topic of overheating in the automotive industry has spread widely in the industry. Competent authorities, major corporations, and industry-related people are highly controversial and cannot agree. However, the assertion of overheating gradually gained the upper hand.

At the beginning of July, Cong Ming, deputy director of the macroeconomic department of the State Council Research Office, said that the State Council will issue stringent control measures for the overheating of real estate, automobiles, and steel.

In early September, at a car industry conference in Tianjin. After Zeng Peiyan, the deputy prime minister, fully affirmed the achievements of the auto industry, he said that the investment in the auto industry had problems with laying out the stalls and projects. The meeting further set the tone for investment in the auto industry.

For a time, the country will severely limit investment in cars. However, it was clear that just in 2004, the auto industry had been placed outside the door in determining which industries were overheated.

What makes the auto industry "lucky escape?" On February 6, Zhang Xiaoyu, vice chairman of the Federation of Machinery Industry, told this reporter that the car was not included in the overheated industry and it was only after a series of studies that it was finally "falling." There are several reasons.

First, in the past year, the overall sales of automobiles have been relatively good, and many new products are in short supply. Dagang Automobile Group enjoys a good profit. The industry's profit reached 80 billion yuan last year.

Second, last year, the automotive industry poured in a lot of money. However, these investments are mainly from the hands of major auto groups. The implication of this is that Zhang Xiaoyu clearly believes that the investment of major auto groups is a rational and normal investment.

Third, cars will increasingly become an important force for stimulating domestic demand. This has become a consensus among various ministries and commissions of the central government. The basis for corroborating this statement is that in the documents issued by ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics, the expression method for pulling demand has been changed from “real estate and automobile” to “automobile and real estate”. The changes indicate that the role of the automotive industry is climbing.

However, this meeting is probably not a blessing for the various local governments and the various impulses of capital and auto industry. Because the central government found that the auto industry is not overheating is based on the performance of major auto groups. Sources said that the impulse of local governments to invest in cars will continue to be curbed by the central government.

There is no doubt that the Central Government’s thinking on the development of the auto industry is still to protect the three major groups. In fact, this idea and the upcoming "Auto Industry Development Policy" come down in one continuous line.

Comprehensive protection of domestic enterprises

On February 6, Rao Da, a senior expert in the industry, said that this industry development policy has amended many previous aspects that contradict the WTO principles. At the same time, it will have a catalytic effect on domestic enterprises and will also impose restrictions on foreign companies. Industrial policy will protect all domestic companies in all aspects and all aspects.

From the R&D aspect, the central government encourages independent research and development. On December 26 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Provisional Regulations on the Direction of Industrial Structure Adjustment (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" and "Guidance Catalogue for the Adjustment of Industrial Structure (Draft for Comment)".

This regulation and the guidance catalogue are "one of the main bases for the state to guide the adjustment of industrial structure, guide investment, and manage investment projects by government investment management departments." This directory is divided into encouragement, restriction, and elimination. Among them, the development and manufacture of auto bodies and body accessories, including key components, are all encouraged.

From the production link, the main regulation will be the “Manual Measures for the Identification of Vehicle Characteristics”. This approach will stipulate that if the number of imported parts of the vehicles produced by the joint venture reaches more than 40%, the tariff will be levied on the basis of the entire vehicle import. This regulation is bound to promote the development of domestic parts and components industry. At the same time, it can also limit short-sighted behavior in the current industry - rapid assembly and profit. At the same time, it forced various foreign manufacturers and their domestic partners to unite in China to carry out localized development and avoid the possibility of China becoming a foreign manufacturer of assembly plants.

In the sales service segment, the main rule will be the split-camp policy - imported cars and domestic cars will be sold separately and cannot be placed in the same network. The purpose of this measure is to remove import quotas, limit the expansion of sales networks of foreign manufacturers, increase the cost of sales of imported cars from foreign manufacturers, and thus prevent China from becoming a dumping site for imported cars abroad. The policy of cooperating with this will also be on bonded areas. Reforms and other measures.

Under the meticulous care of various policies, we have determined that the major automobile groups in the country will continue to develop rapidly. The government ultimately hopes that the major domestic auto groups will have independent development capabilities. The fundamental embodiment of this capability will come from the automotive industry. Source - independent research and development. In other words, the central government has taken many measures to restrict foreign companies, even to the extent that they have been blamed on foreign auto giants and even supporters behind them. The fundamental reason is that they hope to hold up a peaceful sky for large domestic groups and allow them enough. Room for growth.

Therefore, before and after the introduction of industrial policies, the independent research and development of domestic enterprises will inevitably become a focus of discussion. However, who can afford this important task?

The weight of independent development

Obviously, the central government has placed the self-development of the car indisputably on the top three automobile groups in China. In fact, as far as the current situation is concerned, the three major conglomerates are the best choices, regardless of their financial or technical strength.

However, the so-called independent development, in the final analysis, is still a commercial behavior. Business conduct must follow commercial principles. The important starting point in business principles is the commercial value. In other words, whether it can gain market recognition and ultimately profit.

For example, Chery's approach, although it cannot be called self-development in a strict sense, it has commercial value and ultimately can achieve commercial success. In fact, Chery started with primitive business principles, and the three major groups often accompanied certain non-commercial factors. In this sense, Chery’s approach may be more meaningful than some of the three major groups’ practices.

As far as the three major groups are concerned, whether they have the incentive to carry out independent research and development, even if they have the power to truly have the ability, even if they have the ability to successfully industrialize in the laboratory, even if they can have industrial value, they will eventually be marketed. Recognizing and becoming a choice of a large number of consumers is a question.

The three major groups are currently obtaining substantial profits from joint ventures established with foreign partners. They enjoy the benefits of mature models from foreign joint venture partners. Independent research and development for them, lack of motivation for commercial profit. The hegemies in the world are all profit-making; all the world is profit-making. For the time being, the driving force for the independent development of the three major groups is not strong.

However, in the speeches of media and even leaders of major groups, people know that the three major groups are also conducting independent research and development. However, it is doubtful how strong their research and development capabilities are. As we all know, a large number of outstanding automotive technicians in China are concentrated in joint ventures - where the compensation package is far from the state-owned enterprises - the lack of talented people and the desire to develop their own minds.

Among the three major conglomerates, there is a practice of manufacturers to cooperate with foreign joint venture partners for independent development. For example, FAW Group cooperated with Toyota and independently developed for FAW in Changchun.

At least for now, we cannot judge the commercial value of this move. The simple logic is that foreign automakers need to make a profit in the Chinese market. They hope that the less competition, the better. Now, they are training competitors—helping domestic manufacturers to develop independently. Judging from simple business logic, this move has no sustained power, and it is also mostly perfunctory. The statement of Toyota’s vice president Bai Shui can be used as evidence: “In response to China’s new industrial policy, our cooperation with FAW has been unprecedented in the history of Toyota.” Please note that Toyota is responding to China’s new industrial policy. In response to the central government, not for business value considerations.

Even if some companies in the three major groups have developed new vehicles, it is unknown whether they can achieve industrialization on a large scale and whether they can gain market recognition. Compared with a completely unknown future, profitability now becomes a realistic choice.

Moreover, independent research and development are not things that can be accomplished between days and nights. The heads of the three major groups have their term limits. In the short term, it is obviously more attractive to create maximizing profits than self-development that cannot touch the future—especially for the careers of the top three group leaders.

Therefore, it can be argued that letting the three major corporations undertake the important task of independent development is inconsistent with the business logic. Let us make mistakes in our judgment.

Joint ventures have more impulses to develop

For joint ventures, they must be more and more localized. This is due to internal and external reasons. From the perspective of the global market, the Chinese market will have a greater and greater impact on the financial statements of major auto companies. They must focus more on the Chinese market. This requires their joint ventures in China to have a There is a deeper understanding that this is an external cause. For manufacturers, the fierce competition forced them to compromise on consumers. All manufacturers must create more suitable vehicles for Chinese consumers. And Chinese consumers are bound to become more selective. But on the other hand, Chinese consumers are increasingly demanding cars. In the face of strong and demanding demands, the only thing joint venture companies can do is to make the car more local and service more localized.

There are already early birds. What these top joint venture companies are now doing is transforming the car into a car that fits the Chinese market. For example, Shanghai GM, Regal and Excelle are two localized improvements. These two vehicles have undergone localized transformations in all directions. This transformation has been highly recognized by the market—both vehicles are in short supply.

This clearly and accurately conveys a message that the Chinese market needs to adapt to Chinese consumers' cars. Along this line of thinking, the ultimate height that a good joint venture company such as Shanghai GM can achieve is, of course, the development of new models suitable for Chinese consumers for the Chinese market.

Encouraged by the commercial value, excellent joint venture companies have such development impulses. At the same time, they also gradually have the strength of development - including talent and capital reserves.

In the future, there is hope to see such a car - is self-developed, specifically developed for the Chinese market. At the same time, they respect commercial principles and the vehicles they develop have commercial value and market demand. In this sense, this car is a truly independent development. Although the joint venture company has foreign shares, it is a highly localized joint venture company.

Therefore, the Chinese auto industry's breakthrough in independent research and development will inevitably begin with an excellent joint venture.

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