In the first three quarters of 2009, the economic performance of China's petroleum and chemical industries showed a pick-up trend from quarter to quarter, especially in the third quarter, especially in September, when the output value of the oil and chemical industries entered a growth track (compared to the same period of last year). . The growth rate of product output continued to expand, and the industry's operating rate improved; some of the bulk product market continued to pick up, and some prices began to rise from the bottom; investment in the chemical industry continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down; import and export trade continued to decline, but the decline was significant Zoom out. At the same time, the development of the industry is still facing difficulties, such as the overcapacity problem in some industries is still outstanding, the weak situation in the chemical market has not changed much, the export situation is still severe and so on.

I. Analysis of the economic operation characteristics of the petroleum and chemical industries

(I) Significant acceleration in the pace of recovery of output value

From January to September, the total output value of the industry (current price, the same below) was 4.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, which was a 1.7 percentage point drop from January to August. In terms of quarters, the industrial output value increased quarter by quarter and the decline narrowed quarter by quarter. In the first, second, and third quarters, the output values ​​were 1,263.76 billion yuan, 1,639.49 billion yuan, and 1,775.44 billion yuan, respectively, a decrease of 14%, 7.9%, and 3.1%, respectively. Positive growth can be achieved in the fourth quarter. From the perspective of the industry, the chemical industry has achieved positive growth in the second quarter, and the increase in the third quarter has continued to expand, while the decline in the output value of the oil and gas exploration industry and refined petroleum product manufacturing industry also showed a clear contraction.

In September, the industry's total output value reached 613.97 billion yuan, a record high this year, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, ending the negative growth for nine consecutive months since the end of last year, and the growth rate was 9.5 percentage points higher than the previous month.

(II) Gradual increase in output

Since the beginning of this year, with the gradual improvement of the world economy and domestic economy, industry production has gradually recovered, and the operating rate of some industries has gradually increased, and product output has gradually increased. Among the 71 (categories) of petroleum and chemical products that were tracked, cumulatively, from January to September, there were 57 kinds of year-on-year growth, accounting for 80.3%, and there were 14 kinds of output, which accounted for 19.7%. Judging from the quarterly trend, the output of most products increased quarter by quarter, such as crude oil extraction, crude oil processing, inorganics, and organic chemical raw materials. In particular, the growth rate in the third quarter was significant, and the output of some products achieved double-digit growth. In September, the year-on-year growth of product output accounted for 90.3%, and the decrease was 9.7%. Among them, the growth rate of more than 10% of species (classes) reached 71%, and the industry's production continued to maintain a large area of ​​rapid recovery.

(III) Demand for some major bulk products continues to maintain a good momentum of recovery

Since the second half of the year, domestic macroeconomic stability has steadily strengthened, and market demand has expanded. From January to September, the apparent oil consumption increased by 0.7% year-on-year, which is the first positive growth this year and a 3.6 percentage point rebound over the first half of the year. Among which, crude oil increased by 3.3% year-on-year, 4.3% faster than in the first half of the year; apparent consumption of ethylene rose positively for the first time this year, an increase of 3%; apparent consumption of methanol increased by 37.8%, the growth rate slowed but continued to maintain Strong; Polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, the apparent consumption of the three synthetic materials were up 25.9%, 19.3% and 17.8%, respectively, compared with the previous 8 months have accelerated to varying degrees; the apparent consumption of polyester year-on-year The growth rate was 24.5%; the apparent consumption of tires increased by 45.9% year-on-year.

(D) The overall market showed signs of improvement

From the price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September this year, the industry-wide price level is still lower than the same period last year, which is 82.76 (cumulative price for the same period in the previous year is 100), but from a single month, the industry price in September The rebound was obvious, especially since last September, the chemical industry with continued downward price indices showed signs of bottoming out. The monthly oil and chemical industry price index was 85.8 points (the price in the same month in the previous year was 100, the same below), which was 4.5 percentage points higher than that in August, of which the chemical industry price index was 83.84 points, a slight increase of 0.34 points from the previous month, although the margin Small, but it was the first time since the financial crisis broke out.

In September, among the 188 kinds of products that were tracked, there were 169 kinds of product prices, which accounted for 89.9% of the year-on-year decrease, and there were 70 kinds of products, which accounted for 37.2%, and the prices of more than half of the products rose. The prices of the products with chain-price increases are mostly basic chemical materials. With the sequential digestion of high-priced raw material inventory, demand has increased and the market is gradually starting up. For example, sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, yellow phosphorus, liquid chlorine, and organic chemical raw materials in inorganic chemical raw materials Ethylene, methanol, toluene and other products. Fertilizer demand has not grown, the market is sluggish, and prices continue to fall. The prices of the five general-purpose resins are still lower than the same period of last year. However, compared with August, the prices of some synthetic rubber products have increased slightly compared to last month. For instance, the price of styrene-butadiene rubber rose by 5.7. %, butadiene rubber rose 2.8%.

(5) Significant reduction in the decline in import and export trade

Since the beginning of this year, the import and export trade of the petroleum and chemical industries has been showing a downward trend, but the decline has gradually narrowed since May. From January to September, the total import and export trade of the industry reached 229.91 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 32.8%. The total value of export trade was 70.7 billion U.S. dollars, down 30.2% year-on-year; the total import trade was 159.21 billion U.S. dollars, down 33.8 percent year-on-year; the trade deficit was 88.52 billion U.S. dollars, down 36.5% year-on-year.

In September, the decline in the import and export trade in the petroleum and chemical industries was significantly curbed. The total volume of imports and exports for the month was 32.19 billion U.S. dollars, a record year-on-year drop of 17.9% year-on-year, down 12.1 percentage points from August, and narrowed by 26.4 percentage points from January's sharpest drop in January (44.3%). Among them, the total volume of import trade was US$22.78 billion, which was a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, a decrease of 14.4 percentage points from the previous month; the total export value was US$9.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, which was a decrease of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month. It can be seen that the import and export trade has obviously recovered, indicating that the domestic market demand is further expanding and the international market has also improved.

From the import situation, the increase in import prices of some bulk products led to a slowdown in the decline in trade volume. For example, the monthly crude oil import volume was 17.204 million tons, and the import unit price was 515.5 USD/ton, which was 8.4% higher than that in August, and the trade volume was 8.87 billion US dollars. The year-on-year decrease was 29.3%, a decrease of 11.5% compared with August; the price of some products in crude oil processing and petroleum products also increased compared with August, such as aviation kerosene rose 4.6% and naphtha rose 10.9%. It is worth noting that the import of natural gas showed a rapid growth momentum, with imports of 789,000 tons in September, a year-on-year increase of 143.8%, and an acceleration of 121.3 percentage points from the August increase. Imports of organic chemicals, synthetic resins, and synthetic rubber increased rapidly, at 55.4%, 38.5%, and 100.6%, respectively.

From the export perspective, the refined oil export trade continued to be active. The current month's export volume was 1.335 million tons, an increase of 100.5% year-on-year; the export of inorganic chemicals remained declining, but the decline narrowed, and the export volume was 1.316 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. It narrowed by 7.1 percentage points from August; the export of chemical fertilizers increased significantly, and the export volume was 1.434 million tons (in kind), an increase of 384.4% year-on-year.

(6) Slowing growth of investment in the industry

From January to September, investment in the petroleum and chemical industries maintained growth, but the growth rate slowed down significantly. The cumulative investment in fixed assets reached 689.35 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, and a cumulative slowdown of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This is the fourth consecutive month. decline. In terms of sub-industries, investment in the chemical industry is the main force driving the investment in the entire industry. Its growth rate has been much higher than the average growth rate of the industry, and its share has also expanded month by month. From January to September, the total investment in the chemical industry was 457.37 billion yuan, which is the same 28.1% growth, accounting for 66.3%, which is an increase of 8.5 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the growth of the phosphate fertilizer industry was 92.6%, the growth rate of pesticide industry was 33.3%, the paint and pigment industry increased by 39.2%, the specialty chemicals manufacturing increased by 40.9%, and rubber products. The industry grew by 29.6%; while the investment in the oil and gas exploration industry and the refining industry declined, the investment amount was 135.55 billion yuan and 79.79 billion yuan, respectively, down 13.7% and 14.1% year-on-year respectively.

In terms of different regions, investments in Shandong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, etc., have continued to increase in different degrees. The impact of the government's policy of curbing low-level redundant construction has the advantage of resources but mainly the production of basic products. The investment in Inner Mongolia has obviously slowed down, with a cumulative increase of only 1.6%. Shanxi, on the other hand, was due to the country’s decision to stop coal chemical projects and other investments, and the cumulative decrease in investment was 22.2%.

II. Main issues in economic operation

In summary, in the first three quarters of this year, the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries showed a trend of gradual warming, especially in the third quarter. Significant signs of recovery were seen. Some enterprises’ operating rate increased, product output began to recover, and the market also improved slightly. Although export trade is still declining, the decline has greatly contracted. However, the industry still faces many difficulties and challenges in getting out of the shadow of the economic crisis:

First, there is no major change in the chemical market downturn. Although the chemical market prices in September generally showed signs of bottoming out and there was a slight rebound, the overall downturn in the chemical market did not change significantly. In the more than 1,000 major petrochemical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of the same month, the price index was flat compared to the previous month. The dropped variety is still around 50%. From the current domestic and international supply and demand situation of the petrochemical market, this downturn may continue.

Second, the issue of overcapacity in some industries is prominent. In September, with the significant increase in production, the operating rate of industrial installations increased. However, compared with the expansion of production capacity in some industries, the operating rate is still insufficient. The operating rate of the soda ash industry was approximately 87.6%; the operating rate of the caustic soda industry was approximately 81.3%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide industry was approximately 86.3%; the operating rate of the polyvinyl chloride plant was approximately 63.2%; and the operating rate of the methanol plant was approximately 48%. Phosphate fertilizer plant operating rate of about 66.8%; refinery industry operating rate of about 88.5%. In addition, the coal industry, phosphate fertilizers, soda ash, pesticides, and other industries still have strong impulses for expansion, and investment has increased dramatically, putting tremendous pressure on the industry's structural adjustment.

Third, the export situation of the industry is still severe. From January to September, the total export volume of the chemical industry decreased by 32% year-on-year. Among them, the inorganic chemical raw materials industry decreased by 46.6%; the fertilizer industry decreased by 56.5%; pesticides decreased by 34.6%; synthetic materials decreased by 33.4%, and rubber products decreased by 30.3%. The continued spread of international trade protectionism is even worse for exports of domestic enterprises. According to research data from the Ministry of Commerce, since 1999, 99 measures taken by 56 countries and regions in the world have included content that harms China’s commercial interests. Among the list of key targets targeted by protectionist measures that have been implemented, China ranks first, followed by the United States and Germany. Of the 134 unenforced measures, 77 have affected China's interests, affecting the United States and Germany with only 19 and 30 respectively. Therefore, China's foreign trade environment may become more severe in the future.