With the continuous rise in international oil prices, the domestic market is expected to increase the price of refined oil products. According to industry insiders, on the basis of the previous “three consecutive losses”, even if the refined oil prices rise, the impact on prices is very limited.

Last week, international crude oil held steady and showed a rising trend. International crude oil futures prices have risen for seven consecutive trading days, and the rate of change in the three places has continued to rise. According to industry monitoring data, the rate of change will reach 4% at the end of this month. The price adjustment window will be opened around August 10, so domestic refined oil prices will rise after the “three consecutive losses”.

According to the latest monitoring data of Treasure Island, as of July 19, the average daily price of crude oil in three places (Xinta, Dubai, Brent) is 106.317 US dollars per barrel, and the average price of nearly 22 days is 98.480 US dollars per barrel, compared with July. The benchmark price on the 9th rose by 1.01%. The rate of change in the three regions has gradually increased. At the same time, as the European debt crisis has been alleviated to some extent, the peak demand season and the concerns of the European oil supply market will greatly boost the international oil price, and oil prices will eventually reverse the upward trend in the short term. Trends, a new round of price adjustment cycle is about to kick off in early August.

According to Zhuo Chuang model data, if the international oil price maintains the current volatility, the rate of change of the three crude oils will be broken by 4% next week, one of the price adjustment conditions will be met, and the oil product upward adjustment window will be opened on August 9.

In fact, according to the researcher of Treasure Island, since July 19, the price of the diesel oil zone has been adjusted online. Among them, the company outside the zone has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the company in the zone has risen by 50 yuan/ton. The petrol area allocation price will not be adjusted for the time being. Treasure Island analysts expect that domestic diesel prices will continue to rise and gradually approach retail price limits.

Refined oil prices are a basic price that affects all aspects of economic and social life. As a means of production, the price of refined oil affects the cost of agricultural and industrial production. However, Zhou Dadi, deputy director of the National Energy Expert Advisory Committee, said that refined oil products have actually reached the end of consumption, and oil prices really account for a very low proportion of CPI, accounting for only 2% to 3%. A factor that accounts for only 2% to 3% of the price index, even if it rises by 10%, has a very limited impact.

At present, inflationary pressures have been significantly eased. The data shows that the June CPI has fallen to 2.2% year-on-year. Moreover, refined oil prices account for a small proportion of CPI. Statistics show that in China's household energy consumption, electricity and natural gas account for the majority, while fuel weight is only 2%.

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