Automotive Industry: Fourth Quarter Report Finding Deterministic Factors for Next Year
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In January-August 2009, the sales volume of the automotive industry increased by 29%. The willingness of manufacturers to inject impulses in the fourth quarter was very strong. The industry still had the possibility of exceeding expectations. The fundamentals did not change much. With only 3 months left in 2009, we are more concerned with the industry's future trends.
However, at the current moment, it is still difficult to draw a picture of the automobile industry in the next year. However, there are still some relatively deterministic factors worthy of study, and from which to find investment.
First, we believe that there will be no excess capacity in the passenger vehicle industry next year. We use the statistical sample of companies that accounted for 95% of sales in the industry. The results show that approximately 3.22 million new production capacity will be released in the next two years. If we assume that the demand growth in 2010 and 11 will be 10% and 8% respectively, then the future The two-year capacity utilization rates were 84% and 83%, respectively, while the auto capacity utilization rate was more than 80%, which is relatively healthy. Therefore, the recent media hype over the "overcapacity" argument is not accurate, and the future of the passenger vehicle industry will be vicious. The probability of price reduction is small.
Second, we believe that the trend of industrial shift of commercial vehicles is relatively certain. In 2009, there were many cases of commercial vehicle companies collaborating with foreign companies. We think that the wave of joint ventures may seem accidental, but in reality it is an inevitable trend facing the development of the industry: under the influence of China's resource prices reform and environmental protection emissions escalation. The upgrading of China's commercial vehicle industry is an inevitable trend. It will also enhance the overall competitiveness of China's commercial vehicle products, and exports will become the core driving force for the long-term growth of commercial vehicles.
Third, we believe that the sustainability of rural market demand is relatively certain. This is also the focus of this report's analysis. The core ideas are as follows:
1) In 2008, the per capita income of farmers reached 6,700 yuan, which is close to the critical point of automobile consumption. For farmers, the automobile is not only a living material, but also a means of production. After the household appliances and motorcycles enter rural households, the automobile will become a rural area. The next growth point of demand.
2) The rapid development of rural grade highway construction since 2006 has directly contributed to the continuous growth of rural passenger and cargo traffic. At the same time, the process of urbanization has led more and more farmers to get rid of traditional agricultural production and enter the manufacturing and transportation industries. The countryside is very useful.
3) The structure of the existing rural motor vehicles is not reasonable. The survey shows that the existing vehicle population in rural areas in China can only complete about 30% of the rural transportation demand, while the developed countries are above 80%, and the relatively more efficient micro-customers The replacement of agricultural vehicles by micro-cards and light trucks has a huge demand base.
Therefore, we believe that the effect of the car to the countryside is not a flash in the pan of policy stimulus, and it is expected to maintain 15-20% growth in the next three years.
In the commercial vehicle industry, we mainly recommend Foton Motors, Weichai Power, Weifu Hi-Tech, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Jiangling Motors. Automobiles to the countryside are involved in Changan Automobile, Foton Motor, Jianghuai Automobile and Dongan Power.
At present, the dynamic PE of the auto and parts industry in 2009 is 23 times, which is within a reasonable range. However, there are still some companies underestimated, comprehensive valuation and future industry opportunities. We recommend Futian Automobile, Changan Automobile, and Weifu in the fourth quarter. Gaoke, Dongan Power, Weichai Power and Jiangling Motors.