event

On December 11, 2011, the Legal Affairs Office of the State Council issued the "School Car Safety Bill." It elaborated on the legal system regarding the safety standards, financial support, operation mode, management system, security and responsibility of school buses. This is after Wen Jiabao stated his position ten days ago, the central government has once again demonstrated its determination to improve student traffic safety.

attention

1) The "draft" stipulates four conditions for the school bus use permission system: 1 it belongs to the school or school bus service provider; 2 it complies with the national standards for the safety technology of motor vehicles; the special school bus meets the national standards for special school bus; 3 the uniform school bus marker lights And the parking sign, the special school bus spraying unified school bus appearance mark; 4 has been insured motor vehicle traffic accident liability compulsory insurance and passenger liability insurance. In addition, vehicles whose service life exceeds 8 years or whose mileage exceeds 200,000 kilometers must exit the school bus team. At present, relevant departments are stepping up efforts to formulate national standards for school bus safety and establish a sound school bus safety standard system as a mandatory technical norm. 2) Funding requirements are shared by the local and central governments. There are tax incentives for school bus services. 3) Production and sales of school buses that do not meet the school bus safety standards shall stop production and be fined.

Demand may be released centrally

This license system indicates that the current "school bus", which accounts for more than 98% of the country's total, does not meet the safety standards and must be taken out of operation. School buses that meet the standards must be launched. According to the spirit of the draft, all localities must replace the school buses of elementary schools and kindergartens with professional school buses within three years. Funds needed to purchase and use school buses are shared by the central government and local governments. From this, it can be judged that there will be peaks of school bus procurement in all regions within three years from now.

Growth space

The "Draft" also pointed out that: as far as possible to shorten the distance to school, the nearest school, improve the public transport system, reduce traffic risks is the source of measures to reduce school bus safety accidents. This article states that the focus of the development of professional school buses in China is to provide services for scattered students in rural areas. Cities should ensure that they are close to school and that public transport is the main solution to student transportation needs. The demand for specialized school buses has been diverted, and the proportion of students using school buses is unlikely to reach the level of developed countries in the West. This point has been pointed out in our forecast for school bus demand in the previous report. However, even with a 10% ride rate, the demand for professional school buses in China is also 300,000, and there is a considerable gap between the current 10,000 and school buses. There is plenty of room for the growth of school bus ownership.

Effect

We have proposed that the policy will trigger the first phase of the upward trend of the market. The gradual opening of the market and the real implementation of the results will bring about the second phase of the market. The Central Economic Work Conference has determined the tone of a proactive fiscal policy and a sound monetary policy. The school bus belongs to the category of implementing a proactive fiscal policy. We believe that local governments at all levels will implement the school bus policy in 12 years and do a good job in school bus procurement. Policy and procurement information will be announced one after another, and the market will gradually shift to the second phase.

in conclusion

As a theme investment opportunity, school buses need to grasp the rhythm of the introduction of policies, the amount of government funds invested, and the size of market space, and choose suitable targets. The passenger car sales in December are still steady, and it is recommended that the industry leader Yutong Bus. However, the January Spring Festival will lead to a significant drop in sales in January and January of the 12th, which may put pressure on the stock price. The relatively weak cycle of the passenger car industry and a stable competitive landscape make it show its relative advantage after the first quarter.

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