Commercial vehicles will bottom out in 2013
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Affected by factors such as the industry cycle and the slowdown of China's industrialization, the overall performance of commercial vehicle companies was poor last year. The industry experienced negative growth for two consecutive years after reaching the highest point in 2010, and it was the lowest point in 20 years.
In this context, of the 8 commercial vehicle listed companies that have disclosed annual reports, only Foton Motors and Yutong Bus have achieved net profit growth. The net profit of leading commercial vehicle companies such as Dongfeng Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has dropped sharply. However, according to analysts, from the fourth quarter of 2012, the commercial vehicle market has stabilized and stabilized. Ma Yin, an analyst at Yintong Zhili, believes that the Chinese economy is expected to recover moderately in 2013. A large number of infrastructure projects will be launched and the national IV standard will be fully implemented on July 1, 2013. Many good and commercial vehicle companies will continue to see new growth points. Excavation will gradually make China's commercial vehicle market, especially the medium and heavy truck market, show a warming trend.
Commercial vehicle industry will bottom out
According to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association, the sales of commercial vehicles in the national automotive industry in 2012 was 3,811,200, a year-on-year decrease of 5.49%. Sales of trucks in commercial vehicles totaled 3.3038 million units, down 6.80% year-on-year, and passenger car sales were 507,400, an increase of 4.01% year-on-year. The sales volume of the commercial vehicle market has fallen by more than 5% for two consecutive years. From the data point of view, the commercial vehicle industry is at a historical low for 20 years.
Since entering the 21st century, China's commercial vehicle market has experienced two rounds of growth cycles. The first round was from 1998 to 2005. During the four years from 1998 to 2002, the amplitude of oscillations increased to 29.2%. In the three years from 2002 to 2005, the increase rate has oscillated back down to -0.8%. The second round was 2005-2011, which lasted for 6 years. In the five years from 2005 to 2010, the amplitude of oscillations increased to 29.9%; in 2010-2011 only one year, the increase rate quickly fell back to -6.3%, and it was nearly 20 years. New low. In 2012, the growth rate of the commercial vehicle market narrowed to -5.5%. Based on the above time-based analysis, the market has gradually entered the third-round growth cycle.
Analysts said that the long-term potential growth rate of commercial vehicles is closely related to the country’s economic growth and industrialization. During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China’s long-term potential average growth rate and GDP growth rate are still shortly after mid-industrialization. Basically equal. After undergoing adjustments, the positive growth of the industry in 2013 will be a high probability event. Observed from the fundamentals, after the adjustment in the first three quarters of last year, in December last year, China's sales of commercial vehicles increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the market has shown signs of recovery.
Since last year, the number of major projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission has reached 94. These include a batch of new construction, expansion and relocation of airports, five highway and rail transportation projects, six borrowing projects for foreign loans, ten infrastructure construction projects conducted by the central government in the form of work, and so on. Such projects will be launched. To open the development space for the medium and heavy truck market in 2013. In addition, the Ministry of Environmental Protection requires that, as of July 1, 2013, all production, import, sales, and registration of vehicle compression ignition engines and vehicles must comply with the requirements of the National IV standard. According to this announcement, the first half of this year will be the final transition time before the implementation of the IV standard for diesel vehicles, which may stimulate sales of the National III products.
In 2009, the relevant government departments of our country have clearly stated that they will strive to realize sales of automobiles and parts by 85 billion U.S. dollars by 2015, with an average annual growth of 20%. In 2011, they also issued the “Promotion of Electrical and Mechanical Services during the Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. "Continuous development of product exports", as one of the 25 key industries, the automobile will be subject to policy.
Industry leader Futian Automobile and other companies are optimistic
In the industry's downturn, the performance of listed companies in the industry is generally poor. Among the eight listed companies that have published annual reports, the net profit of leading commercial vehicle companies such as Dongfeng Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has dropped sharply. Among them, Dongfeng Motor's net profit fell by 94% last year. Sinotruk's net profit dropped by 87% last year. Jianghuai Automobile's net profit dropped by 24.22% last year.
From the perspective of performance, Foton Motors and Yutong Bus are among the companies that have announced their annual performance in the industry. Last year, Foton Motor achieved a net profit of 1.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.43%. Yutong Bus achieved a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan last year, an increase of 31.18% year-on-year.
The Foton Motor Annual Report shows that the company achieved operating revenue of 40.97 billion yuan for the full year, down 20.7% year-on-year. Analysts believe that the main reason is that Foton Motors and Daimler set up a 50:50 Fukuda Daimler joint venture company, the heavy truck business from the second half of 2012 has no longer consolidated. Compared with the caliber, the operating revenue of Foton Motor in 2012 was basically the same as that of the same period of last year.
It is worth noting that in the industry situation in which the commercial vehicle market continues to be sluggish, Foton Motor has achieved the top sales of commercial vehicles in China for nine consecutive years. The company has achieved sales of 620,000 vehicles in the year. Although it has fallen by 3.12% year-on-year, it is much lower than commercial sales. The decline in the average sales volume of the auto industry was 5.5%. The advantages of Foton Motor's full range of commercial vehicle development models are evident. In terms of market segments, Foton Motor’s market share has increased: The market share of medium- and heavy-duty trucks has increased by 1%, ranking fourth in the country; the market share of light-duty cards has reached 21.8%, and continues to rank first in the industry; the light bus market The occupation rate was 7.1%, and the industry ranked fifth; the market share of large and medium-sized passengers was 3.0%, an increase of 43.7% over the same period last year.
At the same time, Foton Motors is also very eye-catching in terms of export performance. In 2012, the company exported 44,300 vehicles, and its export revenue increased 70.5% year-on-year to 3.62 billion yuan. This is mainly due to the company's intensive cultivation abroad in recent years, and it also benefits. The company's strategic alliance with Cummins and Daimler promoted overseas expansion.
Orient Securities said that due to improved demand for heavy trucks, Foton Motor's earnings in 2013 will continue to improve. It is estimated that in 2013 the heavy truck industry sales will grow by more than 10% year-on-year. The sales growth of Foton Motor's heavy truck sales will still be higher than the industry growth rate; the production and sales of joint ventures such as Foton Cummins Engine will continue to increase, and the self-supply ratio of key components is expected to increase. At the same time, the utilization rate of Foton Motor's capacity will improve with the improvement of the trend of the commercial vehicle industry, and the development prospects will be considerable.
According to analysis by industry experts, in recent years, Foton Motor has accelerated its efforts in transformation and innovation and is expected to win opportunities in the future market competition. In terms of investment in R&D, Foton Motor’s R&D input in 2012 accounted for 4% of sales revenue, which is much higher than the 1.4%–2.1% investment ratio of China’s auto vehicle companies, and close to 4%—5 of the world’s major auto enterprise groups. The average value of %; In the aspect of new product development, the competitiveness of high-end products of Foton Motors is improving, and the product quality is obviously improved. In the field of new energy vehicles, Foton Motors has formed a hybrid, pure electric, hydrogen fuel, and energy-efficient engine. The large core design and manufacturing engineering center has become the industry leader. In areas such as heavy machinery, relying on existing heavy truck resource platforms and networks, Foton Motors has a lot of room for growth in the future.
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