China Drying Newsletter In 2012 and 2013, the new ethylene production capacity in the world was relatively small, but the growth of ethylene production capacity in China was relatively rapid.

According to statistics, in 2013, two new large-scale petroleum pipeline ethylene plants were put into production globally, with an additional capacity of 1.6 million tons per year, all of which are concentrated in China. The two units are the 800,000-ton/year plant of Wuhan Petrochemical and the 800,000-ton/year plant of PetroChina Sichuan Petrochemical. The former is expected to put into production in the second quarter, and the annual output will be 300,000 tons; the latter is expected to put into production in the second half of the year and the annual output will be 200,000 tons.

In addition, there are two sets of MTO devices in operation in China, and the new ethylene capacity is 600,000 tons/year. The operating rate of existing MTO devices has exceeded 80% and is in good condition.

It can be seen that China's new ethylene production capacity exceeded 2 million tons in 2013, and its ethylene production is expected to reach 17.03 million tons, a substantial increase from 2012.

In terms of operating rate, based on the decline in ethylene production in 2012, the overall situation is gradually stabilizing and improving. It is expected that the increase in ethylene production in 2013 will be slightly larger than in 2012, and the ethylene plant operating rate will rebound slightly to 83.8%, which is 0.4% higher than that in 2012. The performance of light hydrocarbons and mixed feed devices increased, and the operating rate of naphtha feed devices continued to decline. Among them, the operating rate in North America has remained at over 90%; some Western European regions will close some devices, and the overall operating rate will rebound; the increase in downstream installation capacity in the Middle East will lead to a slight recovery in the operating rate of ethylene plants; in Asia, due to low gross profit, the operating rate will decline. Continue to decline.

In the future, the raw material for the development of the ethylene industry in the world will be further diversified, but lightening will be the development trend. In 2011, the proportion of global naphtha as raw material was 44.1%, which was nearly 9 percentage points lower than in 2007. It is estimated that the proportion of naphtha in the world as a raw material in 2013 was 42.9%, which was a decrease of 0.7% from 2012.

Equivalent demand is also slightly upward. It is expected that the demand for ethylene equivalent in 2013 will be 33.5 million to 34.7 million tons, an annual increase of 3% to 6.7%.

The increase in demand for polyethylene and ethylene glycol was the main driver of demand for ethylene equivalent in 2013. It is expected that the demand for polyethylene in China will increase by 4.5% in 2013, which will increase demand for ethylene equivalent by 3.1%; demand for ethylene glycol will increase by 9%, driving demand for ethylene equivalent to increase by 2.3%.

Global gross profit will recover, but in 2013 Asian ethylene prices may be slightly lower than 2012, and gross profit still maintains its current level. Taking Southeast Asia as an example, in 2012, ethylene prices in this region fell slightly compared with 2011, and the average price in 2013 is expected to be US$1210/ton, which is slightly lower than 2012. Gross profit remains at the current level.

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