LED lighting industry: the third light source revolution is strong
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LED lighting is the third light source revolution after incandescent and fluorescent lamps. Due to its energy saving, long life and wide application, the world's major countries and regions have vigorously developed the LED industry. At present, the global LED industry has entered a period of rapid development. In 2013, the global LED market was 12.4 billion US dollars. In 2020, it will be It has reached a scale of 150 billion US dollars, and the compound growth rate has reached 42.6. As one of the major LED production and consumption countries in the world, with the gradual advancement of policies and the outbreak of demand, China's LED industry faces significant historical opportunities and will generate huge investment opportunities. .
The investment gold mine of the LED industry is rich in changes in the development trend of the industry. First, technological advancement and industrial upgrading are accelerating. After the cost has dropped drastically, the application range of LED products has been continuously increased, and the market scale has been expanding. In 3 to 5 years, the compound growth rate of LED lighting demand scale has reached 30~40.
Second, demand start-up and policy promotion, LED industry driving force from backlight applications to lighting applications, 2013 to 2016 LED lighting penetration rate increased from 10 to 50 or so, driving LED lighting industry chain into a high boom cycle. Third, the competition pattern has changed, and LED production capacity has gradually shifted from the United States, Japan, and the European Union to China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Fourth, the speed of industrial integration has obviously accelerated, industrial concentration has gradually increased, and industry leaders with core technology advantages, channel advantages, and scale advantages have grown rapidly.
Investment strategy: Under the general trend of LED lighting, we are optimistic about the long-term investment value of the LED sector. The investment perspective is divided into the following aspects:
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First, look at the entire LED panel, with over-matching value: In the long run, the lighting penetration rate will accelerate. It is expected that the LED lighting penetration rate will increase from 10 to 50 in 2013~2016, driving the LED lighting industry chain into the industry chain. High boom cycle.
Second, the mid- and long-term LED industry chain has the most investment value in the upstream and downstream links: from the lighting industry value chain and development trend, the current LED epitaxial chip profit accounts for about 70, the packaging link is about 10~15, and the application link is about 10~20, the chip in the front end of the value chain occupies a very high added value. As the status of LED applications and brand services increases, the added value of downstream applications and brand services will gradually increase. We believe that the two-chip and lighting applications of the medium and long-term LED industry chain have the most investment value. In the short to medium term, the LED lighting industry chain has investment value.
Third, the short-term configuration has arrived, and the current LED sector is in place, and the purchase point is coming. In the short term, we believe that from the perspective of fundamentals and valuation, the current LED panel configuration has a time point. 1 Taiwan's LED industry data exceeded expectations in January-February; 2 traditional April-May peak season is coming; 3 We expect LED sector 14/15 revenue growth rate to be 50 and 30 or more, currently only 30 and 21 times for PE.
Fourth, the industrial integration is accelerating, and the investment opportunities in the rapid growth of the segmentation advantage enterprises: the LED industry integration speed is obviously accelerated, the industrial concentration is gradually improved, and the industrial chain segmentation leader with core technology advantages, channel advantages, and scale advantages It will grow rapidly through epitaxial expansion.