Price rises on the 14th window and restarts the new pricing mechanism for refined oil
February 03 22:06:12, 2023
On the 14th working day after the National Development and Reform Commission raised the retail price of refined oil on December 22 last year, the international crude oil prices in the three regions broke the rate of change of 4% again. According to calculations, if the conditions of price adjustment for 22 consecutive working days are implemented, the domestic price adjustment window will be opened on January 21.
According to the latest data released on January 13 for the international oil price "hundreds," the rate of change in the weighted average price of crude oil in the three places as the domestic refined oil price scale has reached 5.06%, but the "broken 4 red line" appeared on the 11th of this month. According to calculations, on January 11th, the international crude oil prices in the three places reached a 4.7% increase, but so far, it has not been met for 22 consecutive working days.
In fact, after a short period of stabilization, international crude oil prices once again set off a rising tide. On January 12, New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $91.86 per barrel in February 2011, up $0.75 from the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude February 2011 Futures settled at $98.12 per barrel, up $0.51 from the previous session.
In some regions, the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to have been reached. If the average price of crude oil does not fall below US$90/barrel in the coming week, the conditions for price adjustment will be met on Friday (January 21).
The timing of the pricing mechanism for refined oil products has not yet been announced. In October last year, the NDRC stated that it will introduce a new refined oil pricing mechanism in 2010. The relevant person in charge of this development and reform commission told reporters yesterday that the direction of the marketization of refined oil pricing mechanism adjustment has not changed, but given the timing and specific content may still need to be considered, there is currently no specific introduction time. Analysts believe that the recent rise in international oil prices makes the new mechanism unfavorable at present.
The current domestic pricing mechanism for refined oil products has been operating for nearly 2 years. According to this mechanism, when the international oil price changes continuously for 24 working days, the rate of change in domestic oil prices can be adjusted.
When the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted on October 26, 2010, relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new refined oil pricing mechanism will be introduced before the end of 2010 and said that it is making new adjustments to the refined oil pricing mechanism, given the original pricing mechanism. If the price adjustment cycle is too long, it may trigger the hoarding of operators and will consider shortening the current price adjustment cycle. Afterwards, some experts who participated in the research work of the NDRC disclosed that the core content of the new pricing mechanism is that the original 22-day price adjustment cycle may be shortened to 10 days or 14 days, and the other is to realize the automation of refined oil price adjustment, that is, no longer needed. Submitted to the State Council for approval.
However, the year 2010 has passed and the adjustment of the new pricing mechanism remains unchanged.
Liao Kaijun, an analyst at CBI, believes that the direction of the adjustment of the pricing mechanism will not change, but the government may lose the opportunity to launch the international oil price in the near future. He analyzed that the government may be forced to postpone the introduction of the mechanism by the pressure of inflation. Because if according to the new mechanism, under the condition that international oil prices have been climbing all the way, the adjustment of domestic oil prices will be higher than the current situation, which will further push up the inflation index. In addition, he also believes that the new pricing mechanism proposes that refined oil price adjustments do not require the State Council to approve “this level†and also requires further communication between multiple relevant decision-making departments, and will also affect the time for the introduction of the mechanism.
International oil prices hit a new high in two years on January 12. New York crude oil for February delivery rose 90 cents to settle at 92.02 US dollars a barrel, the highest since October 3, 2008, or 1%.
Market analysis believes that Portugal’s successful issuance of government bonds, weaker US dollar, and the US’s inventory decline last week that exceeded expectations were the main reasons for rising oil prices. Since the price increase of domestic refined oil products on December 22 last year, international oil prices have been operating at high levels.
According to the data disclosed by the domestic commodity information provider CBI yesterday, as of January 12th, the mobile rate of oil prices in Brent, Dubai, and Xinta has reached 5.06% for 22 consecutive working days.
"On January 21, the window period for the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices will be opened again." Liao Kaixi, an analyst at China Merchants Capital, told reporters. He believes that in accordance with the current trend of international oil prices, this rate of change in the movement will continue to climb, in the short term the rate of change fell to less than 4% is unlikely. At 15:50 Beijing time yesterday, NYMEX oil price was at 91.81 US dollars a barrel. According to the last time the domestic refined oil price was raised at 0:00 am on December 22nd, the date after 22 working days is January 21, so the next window of domestic refined oil price adjustment will also open on January 21, when Just meet the two conditions of "22 days + 4%" stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission.
However, Liao Kaixi said that according to previous rules, the NDRC will generally delay the time for the price of oil to increase, so the next increase in oil prices may be postponed to the end of the Spring Festival.
According to the latest data released on January 13 for the international oil price "hundreds," the rate of change in the weighted average price of crude oil in the three places as the domestic refined oil price scale has reached 5.06%, but the "broken 4 red line" appeared on the 11th of this month. According to calculations, on January 11th, the international crude oil prices in the three places reached a 4.7% increase, but so far, it has not been met for 22 consecutive working days.
In fact, after a short period of stabilization, international crude oil prices once again set off a rising tide. On January 12, New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $91.86 per barrel in February 2011, up $0.75 from the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude February 2011 Futures settled at $98.12 per barrel, up $0.51 from the previous session.
In some regions, the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to have been reached. If the average price of crude oil does not fall below US$90/barrel in the coming week, the conditions for price adjustment will be met on Friday (January 21).
The timing of the pricing mechanism for refined oil products has not yet been announced. In October last year, the NDRC stated that it will introduce a new refined oil pricing mechanism in 2010. The relevant person in charge of this development and reform commission told reporters yesterday that the direction of the marketization of refined oil pricing mechanism adjustment has not changed, but given the timing and specific content may still need to be considered, there is currently no specific introduction time. Analysts believe that the recent rise in international oil prices makes the new mechanism unfavorable at present.
The current domestic pricing mechanism for refined oil products has been operating for nearly 2 years. According to this mechanism, when the international oil price changes continuously for 24 working days, the rate of change in domestic oil prices can be adjusted.
When the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted on October 26, 2010, relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new refined oil pricing mechanism will be introduced before the end of 2010 and said that it is making new adjustments to the refined oil pricing mechanism, given the original pricing mechanism. If the price adjustment cycle is too long, it may trigger the hoarding of operators and will consider shortening the current price adjustment cycle. Afterwards, some experts who participated in the research work of the NDRC disclosed that the core content of the new pricing mechanism is that the original 22-day price adjustment cycle may be shortened to 10 days or 14 days, and the other is to realize the automation of refined oil price adjustment, that is, no longer needed. Submitted to the State Council for approval.
However, the year 2010 has passed and the adjustment of the new pricing mechanism remains unchanged.
Liao Kaijun, an analyst at CBI, believes that the direction of the adjustment of the pricing mechanism will not change, but the government may lose the opportunity to launch the international oil price in the near future. He analyzed that the government may be forced to postpone the introduction of the mechanism by the pressure of inflation. Because if according to the new mechanism, under the condition that international oil prices have been climbing all the way, the adjustment of domestic oil prices will be higher than the current situation, which will further push up the inflation index. In addition, he also believes that the new pricing mechanism proposes that refined oil price adjustments do not require the State Council to approve “this level†and also requires further communication between multiple relevant decision-making departments, and will also affect the time for the introduction of the mechanism.
International oil prices hit a new high in two years on January 12. New York crude oil for February delivery rose 90 cents to settle at 92.02 US dollars a barrel, the highest since October 3, 2008, or 1%.
Market analysis believes that Portugal’s successful issuance of government bonds, weaker US dollar, and the US’s inventory decline last week that exceeded expectations were the main reasons for rising oil prices. Since the price increase of domestic refined oil products on December 22 last year, international oil prices have been operating at high levels.
According to the data disclosed by the domestic commodity information provider CBI yesterday, as of January 12th, the mobile rate of oil prices in Brent, Dubai, and Xinta has reached 5.06% for 22 consecutive working days.
"On January 21, the window period for the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices will be opened again." Liao Kaixi, an analyst at China Merchants Capital, told reporters. He believes that in accordance with the current trend of international oil prices, this rate of change in the movement will continue to climb, in the short term the rate of change fell to less than 4% is unlikely. At 15:50 Beijing time yesterday, NYMEX oil price was at 91.81 US dollars a barrel. According to the last time the domestic refined oil price was raised at 0:00 am on December 22nd, the date after 22 working days is January 21, so the next window of domestic refined oil price adjustment will also open on January 21, when Just meet the two conditions of "22 days + 4%" stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission.
However, Liao Kaixi said that according to previous rules, the NDRC will generally delay the time for the price of oil to increase, so the next increase in oil prices may be postponed to the end of the Spring Festival.
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