Refined oil prices rose to a record high
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At the same time, affected by the sharp increase in the price of oil and fat in the international market, domestic edible oil prices have also gone out of a round of rising prices. According to the monitoring of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the first-phase price of soyoil in the coastal areas in July this year was concentrated at 7,100 yuan/ton, and rose to 7,900 yuan/ton by the end of August. After entering September, the soyoil factory price in coastal areas rose to 9300 yuan. Around RMB/ton, it has risen 31% from the beginning of July.
The rise in refined oil and edible oil has attracted the attention of people in the industry. Galaxy Securities chief economist Zuo Xiaolei said in an interview with reporters on the 25th that for some time now, the devaluation of the US dollar has stimulated a significant increase in the prices of international commodities, which will cause certain imported inflationary pressures in China and deserve attention.
At present, China is the second largest consumer and importer of crude oil in the world, and it is also the world’s largest importer of fats and oils. Among them, China's crude oil dependence on foreign markets has exceeded 53%, while the dependence of edible oil consumption on the international market has reached 60%. Obviously, the rise of domestic refined oil and edible oil will inevitably be conducted by the international market.
"On the one hand, more and more US dollars are issued. In the long run, they must devaluate. International bulk commodities are generally denominated in US dollars, so it is definitely a rising trend. On the other hand, a large number of US dollars issued in large quantities have not entered the entity. The economy, but into the commodity market, speculation further boosted the price." Zuo Xiaolei said.
Zuo Xiaolei believes that not only petroleum and oil, but also other international commodities are facing a rising trend. Although the impact of price increases of refined oil and edible oil is difficult to quantify, the impact of imported inflation once the price increase factor is superimposed on other factors. Can not be underestimated.
The Chinese government set a year-on-year target of a 3% increase in the general consumer price index (CPI), but this year’s CPI increase showed a quarter-on-quarter rise. The CPI in September increased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is a continuous three. The monthly CPI growth rate exceeded 3% year-on-year, making it difficult to complete price control targets.
According to Zuo Xiaolei, whether the government can complete the price increase within 3% this year is not so important. She said that there is no need for the government to set the CPI increase to death. To some extent, imported inflation is difficult to avoid. As far as specific indicators are concerned, the affordability of China's economy should be considered as a factor in price regulation.
"As long as the Chinese economy maintains an increase of more than 8%, even if the CPI breaks through 4% this year, it will be nothing extraordinary. Of course, the excessive side effects of excessive currency issuance, especially the depreciation of the US dollar, will gradually be released. The government should pay attention to the possible future This raises questions." Zuo Xiaolei said.
In response, a number of experts advised the reporter that China should increase its tolerance for inflation. For example, the Academy of Social Sciences said in a report that it may consider raising the CPI control target to about 4%; economist Li Yining also proposed that the inflation rate should be mentioned between 4% and 4.5%. However, these proposals failed to receive an official official response.
Regarding the price adjustment of refined oil products, the relevant person in charge of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that although the increase in domestic refined oil prices may affect the expected increase in social prices to a certain extent, the real impact of refined oil price adjustment on the overall level of domestic prices is small.