“When you see a child walking toward the edge of a cliff, can you not stop him?” Yesterday morning Xu Tao, a researcher at the Geological Institute of the China Earthquake Administration, told a reporter from China Business News.

Sitting in an office of the Institute of Geology, China Seismological Bureau, Xu Wendao and his old classmate and Sun Wenpeng, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Geological Sciences in the nuclear industry, are very anxious. This is an old expert who is over seventy years old. However, when talking about the large-scale hydropower development in Nujiang, it is quick thinking and clear.

"If you don't call a child to stop, it's an anomaly." Xu Daoyi told reporters that by chance, they learned that the hydropower department plans to develop Nujiang on a large scale. "When we learned of this, our first reaction was to immediately write to the central government." Letter, speak your own opinion."

“Our opinion is based on the understanding and understanding of the fault structure and local earthquakes. It is purely academic. We have not reflected the opinions of others, and they are purely our own self-discipline.” Sun Wenpeng said.

Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi subsequently gave the reporter a letter they wrote to the top management of the Central Government. The reporter noticed that in addition to the two old experts, Li Dongxu, a professor at the China University of Geosciences, and Han Meng, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, signed the letter. Zhu Ming, a researcher at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Two old experts told reporters that the letter had been delivered. Over the past two years, two old experts have submitted more than 20 proposals to the Central Committee, and some of them have obtained written instructions.

Key facts

According to the report of the Central People's Broadcasting Station on the economy, at the end of January this year, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, stated that preliminary discussions on the development and construction of the Nujiang River, especially design and research, have been done. Although it is advancing that there is no accurate, accurate formulation, it will certainly develop Nujiang.

This is the first time that the National Energy Administration has made a clear statement on the development of the Nu River.

Prior to this, in 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission had submitted to the State Council the "Nujiang River Middle and Lower Reaches Hydropower Planning Report." At that time, the instructions of the State Council’s leadership were: “The large-scale hydropower projects that are of great concern to the society and have different views on environmental protection should be carefully studied and made scientific decisions.” Nujiang Hydropower Development was shelved.

However, the hydropower development department has been promoting hydropower construction in the "Sanjiang" (Jinsha, Lancang and Nujiang) basins. On January 13 this year, the "China Energy News" stated that relevant departments will focus on the construction of large-scale hydropower bases in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Jinsha River, the Yalong River, the Dadu River, the Nujiang River, and the Lancang River during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period.

The original plan for the “Nujiang River Basin Middle and Lower Reaches River Basin Hydropower Planning Report” was: The 13th hydroelectric dam will be built in the main stream of the Nu River, with a total installed capacity of 21.32 million kilowatts and an annual power generation capacity of 102.96 billion kwh.

“We recently made a special trip to the Nujiang area to inspect the geological structure, topography, landforms along the river, the tunnel near the dam site, and the debris flow site.” Sun Wenpeng said, “Our conclusion is: From the unique complex geological background of the Nu River (earthquake, geological (Environment), from the seriousness of geological disasters in this area, and their possible impact on cascade hydropower stations, the geological risk of dam construction on the Nu River is extraordinary.”

Sun Wenpeng said that in fact, the nature of the Nujiang region is geologically fragile and unstable (strong tectonic movements, high degree of regional rupture), the Nujiang fault zone is a deep fault zone, and the Nujiang River (Yunnan section) is a fractured river. Many experts have reached consensus.

They said that even those geologists who worked out plans for the development of the Nujiang River cascade hydropower project have no objection to this. Everyone acknowledges that the geological structure in the middle and lower reaches of the Nu River is complex. The Nujiang fault zone is the main fault of the entire river reach, and it is the main geological factor that restricts the selection of water-level elevator dam sites and determines the safety of cascaded power stations. “But we feel that the developers of hydropower development plans have not shown sufficient vigilance against geological risks, and the assessment of risks still focuses on or stays on isolated microscopic assessments of each dam site.”

Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi believe that if we pay attention to the overall safety of the whole basin, we must pay close attention to the following key facts: The Nujiang region is the most intense area for neotectonic movements. The earthquakes are of high grade (7-8 grades in the Richter scale) and occur frequently. The region is still a region with frequent geological disasters such as mudslides; recent neotectonic movements have intensified, and earthquakes and geological disasters have significantly increased; extreme climates, contemporary tectonic activities, and seismic interactions have increased the possibility of major geological disasters. .

After mastering a large number of scientific research data, Xu Daoyi found that in the past 200 years, especially in the past 60 years, large earthquakes in the west of China (especially in the southwest region) have occurred frequently. Among them, 8.6 large earthquakes in eastern Tibet in 1950 were close to the Nu River, 1976. The Yunnan Longling 7.3 earthquake, the 1988 Yunnan Wanjiang 7.4 earthquake, the Ymagma 7.2 earthquake, the 1995 China-Myanmar 7.3 earthquake, and the 1996 Yunnan Lijiang M7.0 earthquake occurred in or around the Nu River. In the 20th century, earthquakes in Yunnan (including the Nu River region) were in a period of high incidence of major earthquakes.

“We believe that the large earthquakes in the southwest region and the strong earthquakes in Yunnan have increased significantly in the past 100 years. This is a fact that can not be ignored in assessing regional geological stability and earthquake trends.” Xu Daoyi said that so far no geology or earthquake has been seen. The scientist made the conclusion that there will not be a large earthquake in the Nujiang region in the 21st century (the earthquake that occurred in the past decades is greater).

Regarding the issue of frequent geological disasters on both sides of the Nu River, Xu Daoyi said that during the inspection, they discovered that from the Songta Hydropower Station in the upper reaches of Tibet to the Guangpo Hydropower Station near the Sino-Burmese border (except the Bengzhong-Luo Hydroelectric Power Station), the reservoir area is In danger of landslides, landslides and mudslides.

Xu Daoyi provided the 1995 edition of the “Map of China's Geological Hazards Distribution” (previously compiled by the National Comprehensive Natural Disaster Research Group of the State Science and Technology Commission), and has designated the Nu River section from Liuku to Magee as “heavy with mudslides”. Occurrence area, Nujiang area is the type of potential disaster combination and the area with high risk of disaster.

“We are very concerned that this important conclusion was mentioned in the planning and report of the relevant department (Nujiang hydropower development)?” Xu Daoyi said that Yunnan Nujiang Autonomous Prefecture has a total area of ​​14,703 square kilometers and over 98% of the area is In mountain valleys, landslides and debris flows frequently occur. On August 18, 2010, after the mudslide in the Puladi County in Gongshan County, the state party secretary Duan Yueqing stated that there are currently 762 landslides and debris flows in Nujiang Prefecture.

"The third key fact is that the world is now in a period of frequent occurrence of earthquakes and geological disasters." Xu Daoyi said that entering the 21st century, the world has begun to enter a new era of major earthquakes, geological disasters, and meteorological anomalies (extreme climate). The trend has not been reduced until now. Many recent large-scale earthquakes with magnitudes of 7 to 8 in the world, including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, are examples of the increasing trend of global neotectonic movements.

The reporter noted that the controversy over the development of hydroelectric power in the Nujiang River has been going on for a long time, but the experts of the core departments like Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi came forward and boldly raised key facts, for the first time.

Nujiang Geological Problems Special

“We must also give particular emphasis to the particularity of the geological problems on the Nu River, because the risk of the Nu River earthquake and geological disasters is due to the fact that it is a rare and unique area,” Sun Wenpeng told reporters.

Satellite photos show that because the Nujiang fault zone is the strongest and most fiercely active in the neotectonic movement area, a cascade hydropower station is built on the Nu River, and the dam must inevitably straddle the fracture and fracture zone (or inter-level fracture zone). The Nujiang Great Fault is a fault zone that is still active. According to statistics, in most cross sections of the Nujiang River basin, large Nujiang faults and 2 to 3 large faults with a width of more than 100 meters can be seen, as well as several to more than 30 small fault planes, and the entire structural fracture zone. With a width of 400 to 1,000 meters, the risk is obvious.

The Nu River basin is rich in rainfall, especially during the rainy season, especially in June-August. The heavy rain plunged on the banks of the Nu River, where the faults were dense and the ground was steep and broken, and a flood peak could be formed.

“The development of the Nujiang water elevator class may increase the risk of geological disasters.” Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi said that the construction of cascade dams on the Nu River must fully understand the above characteristics and geological risks of the Nu River.

Scientific research confirms that the destruction of the earthquake is not limited to the epicenter, and its influence range is related to the stability of the geological structure and the integrity of the plot, in addition to the intensity of the earthquake. Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi believe that for the Nujiang area, even a large earthquake that occurred in a remote area may trigger unexpected geological disasters (such as mountain collapse, landslides, and mudslides) in the area.

"Therefore, we must not ignore the issue of the existence of disaster chains along the river: Meteorological factors, geological factors, engineering factors and other factors are often tangled together to form a disaster chain and amplify the destructive effects of disasters," said Xu Daoyi.

What is this destructive effect? Xu Dao imagined:

One possibility is that a dam crash caused continuous failure of multiple dams. If one of the dams (especially the upstream dam) is damaged, billions of cubic meters of muddy water (mudflows) carrying large amounts of debris will fall down along the straight, narrow, high slope of the Nu River valley, and the damage to the downstream will be reduced. It is devastating.

Another possibility is that the instability of the bank slope in the reservoir area caused by the impoundment of reservoir dams may lead to large-scale landslides. Landslides may also cause high surges in the reservoir area, posing a threat to dams, or forming dams and damaging water conservancy projects and downstream rivers. The major debris flow disaster in Zhouqu is of great significance for the current relevant departments to consider the geological risk of the Nu River hydropower construction.

Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi also pointed out that there are several key issues in the geological aspects of China's hydropower development in the Nu River that have not been answered.

The materials provided by the two experts to reporters listed five issues:

First, in the 21st century, especially in the next 50 years, is it possible to rule out the possibility of a major earthquake in the Nujiang River or near the Yunnan region?

Secondly, is there any barrage dam built on a deep fault zone in the world? If the Nujiang River is unique, the existing arguments will not be sufficient; if there is a precedent, hydropower projects with similar geological conditions in foreign countries must be fully investigated and fully demonstrated, and if necessary, tests and simulations should be conducted to eliminate the worst. may.

Third, in the coming decades, can the Nujiang reach eliminate the possibility of a major geological disaster (such as a massive mudflow disaster in Zhouqu)?

Fourth, is there a response to possible high risks? Can the existing engineering technology control the impact of geological disasters such as major earthquakes and major debris flows and disaster chains?

Fifth, can a carefully selected safe zone within the deep fault zone during the active geological activity period escape the devastating effects of the dramatic changes in fragile geology around?

Hydropower dispute will continue

In a letter to senior officials, the experts said: “Any strong steel-concrete dam will not prevent relative displacements along the Nujiang deep valley, and no one can stop the huge landslides and landslides that still occur along the Nu River. With mudslides."

Experts pointed out that in the event of a major deep fault and the construction of a high dam across the river in the current seismic activity belt, humanity still lacks a precedent for success. People should not be too superstitious about the technological success of our country in building high dams and giant dams in the past decade or more.

“The recent Wenchuan earthquake, the Yushu earthquake, and the huge mudslides in Zhouqu have issued warnings to us. We are currently in the stage of large-scale geological disasters and extreme weather.” Xu Daoyi said that there was no serious damage to the natural environment. Under the conditions, in the first half of the 21st century, the occurrence of rare geological disasters and earthquakes in the Nu River will remain quite high.

“The issue of the Nujiang earthquake and geological disaster risk will be submitted to a broader discussion as a special major issue, creating conditions for more academic institutions and more experts to participate in investigations, research, and discussions.” Two old experts suggested that in order to increase Its scientific nature, relevant leaders, and agencies should encourage different opinions to be fully communicated and contend at a wider range and at a higher level. Before any of these important tasks are completed, any form of "unapproved construction" activities is prohibited.

However, experts, hydropower development agencies, and local officials in Nujiang have their own opinions about these experts' suggestions.

Lu Youyi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the former general manager of the Three Gorges Corporation, previously stated that the Nu River has abundant and stable trunk water, and there is a large gap between the rivers. Hydropower development has the advantages of good topographic and geological conditions and less emigration. As long as we attach importance to environmental protection issues in development and adhere to scientific development models, resource development and environmental protection can achieve a win-win situation.

Former chief engineer of the Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power, Pan Jiaxuan, once said that the construction of some hydropower stations on the Nujiang River would not change the spectacular scene of the roaring and flooding of rivers during the flood season. It will not change the magnificent scenery of the Nujiang Grand Canyon with snow-capped mountains, steep slopes, grasslands and rapids, and it will not The Loss of Geological Diversity, Biodiversity and Landscape Diversity in the "Three Rivers" Parallel Area.

He Yaohua, a former president of the Southwest Research Institute for Nationalities, once said that the development of the 13th-grade hydropower project in Nujiang can create 34.23 billion yuan worth of electricity annually (a price of 0.35 yuan/kWh and an effective electricity rate of 90%), which can at least increase national production every year. A total value of 515.8 billion yuan (5 yuan per kilowatt-hour); the eastern region can reduce the thermal power investment of 85.07 billion yuan, annually saving 37.05 million tons of standard coal; in addition, it can create 448250 long-term employment opportunities for the Nu River basin, and drive The development of secondary and tertiary industries such as local building materials and transportation.

When the reporter was interviewed along the Nu River in Yunnan in 2007, he happened to meet with Hou Xinhua, Governor of Nujiang State. Hou Xinhua told reporters that Nujiang will unswervingly build a national-level hydropower base and implement the strategy of “a strong economy in mining and power economy”.

Hou Xinhua said: “The people in Nujiang have the strong desire to shake off poverty and have become rich. They have initially had the ability to change the face of their hometown. No power can deprive us of the right to build a new countryside.”

Nujiang’s low level of social development, low quality of laborers, weak economic foundation, coupled with the lack of input, lack of development and other factors, have so far been tied to the poverty line. The four prefectures in the whole prefecture (Gisang, Lanping, Fugong, and Gongshan) wear hats of the “National Priority Poverty Alleviation and Development Counties” without exception.

According to Hou Xinhua's introduction, in early 2007, Nujiang State proposed the "three major goals": the construction of a national hydropower base, a national non-ferrous metal base, and the creation of a well-known tourism brand of the "Three Rivers Parallel" Nujiang Grand Canyon.

A person in charge of the Yunnan Nujiang Power Grid also told reporters that Nu River’s most comparative advantage is hydropower and minerals. “The Nu River needs development, and the most fundamental way out is to fully exploit and utilize these two dominant resources and turn resource advantages into an economic one. Advantage."

According to the concept of Yunnan Province's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Hydropower and New Rural Electrification” (draft), Yunnan plans to build 136 new hydropower stations in the next five years.

The reporter noted that according to the spirit of the national energy work conference in 2011, the expression of hydropower construction has been changed from last year's "reasonable development of hydropower" to this year's "active development of hydropower under the premise of protecting the ecological environment and doing a good job of resettlement."

“But this does not mean that we can blindly develop hydropower in geologically high-risk areas.” Xu Daoyi said.

In answering the reporter’s question on what is the best model for hydropower development in the Southwest, Sun Wenpeng and Xu Daoyi said that the “Dujiangyan” hydropower model is desirable.

"Dujiangyan style" and "high dam type" are two complementary types of different water conservancy projects. Sun Wenpeng explained that the basic features of the "Dujiangyan type" water conservancy project are low cost, low requirements for technology and building materials, short construction period, strong anti-seismic capacity, easy repair, favorable to the ecological environment, and good long-term benefits.

Sun Wenpeng said that the Dujiangyan Water Conservancy Project does not build a high dam on the Yangtze River, does not accumulate a large amount of river water, does not artificially raise the river surface, but clever use of the local terrain, features of the land, and part of the Lancang River water to Chengdu Plain for agricultural irrigation. Because this type of water conservancy project did not change the long-term geomorphological features and did not contain large amounts of water, even in the face of powerful earthquakes, landslides and other geological disasters, its destruction was also local, eliminating the earthquake and geological disasters. The secondary disasters caused by large quantities of impounded water.

Related

"Three Rivers" co-current

In the 1980s, a UNESCO official found on a satellite remote-sensing map that three rivers that would never run dry were parallel in the longitude of 98° to 100°30′ east longitude and 25°30′ to 29° north latitude. This is the Jinsha, Lancang and Nujiang Rivers located in the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and extending into the valleys of the Hengduan Mountains in northwestern Yunnan.

Three rivers run parallel and flow over about 170 kilometers in Yunnan. They are located in Lijiang, Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Nujiang Lisu Autonomous Prefecture in the western part of Yunnan Province. The entire area is 40,000 square kilometers. The shortest straight line distance between the Nujiang River and the Lijiang River is only 18.6 kilometers, and the shortest straight line distance between the Lancang River and the Jinsha River is only 66.3 kilometers.

Due to the special geological structure of the Three Parallel Rivers, the most concentrated biodiversity, rich human resources, and beautiful natural landscapes in the Eurasian continent make this region a unique world wonder. (Zhang Hao)

Western "Staking Water"

In recent years, hydropower construction has created an unprecedented culmination in the west, known as the “China Water Tower.”

China's hydropower planning and design institute's project map shows that by 2005, almost all rivers in the western part of the country were stopped by dams. The Lijiang River has six cascade developments. The Zipingpu Power Station has a capacity of 760,000 kilowatts and a dam height of 156 meters. It is close to the world cultural heritage of Dujiangyan;

In the Dadu River, 356 power stations are planned for the entire river basin, and the largest waterfall power station in the project is under construction. The installed capacity is 3.3 million kilowatts, second only to the Three Gorges Power Station. The dam is 186 meters high and it is estimated that 150,000 people will be resettled;

In the Yalong River, 21 dams will be built, and the famous Ertan Power Station has already been built. The Jinping First Class, which is preparing for the preliminary construction, is the highest dam in the same type in Asia.

In the Lancang River, 14 cascade developments have been planned. The installed capacity of the Manwan Power Station has reached 1.25 million kilowatts. It is currently the largest power station in Yunnan, with a dam height of 132 meters, inundating more than 6,000 acres of arable land and 8,000 acres of woodland;

The Jinsha River in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River will build 12 dams, including the upper reaches of the world's natural heritage, the Tiger Leaping Gorge; there are 17 dams on the Jialing River; and 10 on the Wujiang River.

The original ecological watershed of the Nu River is relatively well-preserved. It is a small river in China with few dams in the western region.

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