As one of the “BRIC countries”, China’s domestic heavy truck market is also “involved” by the global financial crisis, but domestic economic stimulus policies are gradually driving the auto market to “recover”.

Tractor market reproduces "blowout"

In July 2008, the "unconventional" demand of the "National Three Overdrafts" drove the disappearance of market factors and the negative effect clearly emerged. Therefore, the data for July 2009 is also relatively “elevated”, just as the heavy truck market was “depressed” in January 2009. If we remove the “National Three Overdraft” demand factors, the overall trend of the heavy truck market in the first half of 2009 is still relatively optimistic. In July, the China Automobile Association’s data showed that the market started to warm in July. Among them, the production volume of heavy-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailer tractors were 31,059, 21,880, and 23,597, respectively, an increase of 54.93% year-on-year. 79.76% and 58.93% respectively; the sales volume was 10084 vehicles, 20716 vehicles and 22,888 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 19.31%, 108.58%, and 117.24% respectively.

In July, 53,688 heavy trucks were sold, which was almost flat compared to the previous quarter, but increased by 85.67% compared with the same period of last year (28916 units). The cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck market was 327,374 units. In the same period of 2008 (407,979 units), it decreased by 19.76%. Market demand has shown that the tractor market is "blowout" reappeared.

2009 monthly heavy truck market trend characteristics

In January, the trend continued in December 2008. Affected by the Spring Festival vacation and the reduction in the total freight volume, the overall demand of the heavy-duty truck market was insufficient in January, which was a substantial decline from the same period of last year and December of last year;

In February, the sales of dump trucks entered the peak season early (taking into account the Spring Festival). The dump trucks were the “first model” that benefited from “4 trillion” domestic demand. The well-deserved guidance in February was the development trend of the heavy truck market and became the model with the largest contribution rate to the market. According to market analysis, dump trucks have already accounted for more than 40% of the sales of heavy trucks;

In March, the dump truck market continued to rise and the truck market started;

In April, the dump truck market continued to rise; the tractor market started;

In May, tractor truck market "relay" dump truck sales;

In June, there was a slight decrease in the tipper's heat and a significant increase in tractors;

In July, the towing vehicle market "flash blowout" trend, the market tractor market has become the market's main force.

"Liberation" has become a single-month sales champion for three consecutive months

In the first quarter of 2009, the dump trucks provided heavy trucks for heavy trucks such as Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Sinotruck to obtain “good” market sales and profits. With the gradual start-up of the tractor market, the demand for tractors has risen in late March and early April, and has recovered significantly in May. The chain continued to grow in June and showed a steady growth trend. In July, the towing vehicle market “flashed a temporary blowout”. From the data of the month of May, FAW Liberation has been the sales champion for three consecutive months, surpassing the monthly sales of China National Heavy Duty Truck. In the first half of the year, Steyr Heavy Trucks 2 (Shaanxi Zhongqi and Sinotruk), Dongfeng Company, FAW Jiefang and Futian Auman sold a total of 268,720 units with a market concentration of 82.08%, which is 83.21% over the same period of last year. The degree of concentration has decreased. As SAIC Iveco sales are still limited to the dump truck market, the overall market share of the three Steyrs continues to decline, and the tractor market needs to further strengthen sales. As the dump truck market continued to sell well, sales of the Steyr “dumper” market represented by Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and China National Heavy Duty Truck continued to grow. Heavy trucks such as Shaanxi Heavy Duty Trucks sold a total of 127,925 heavy trucks, with a market share of 39.08%. The recovery of the towing vehicle market has enabled Dongfeng Corporation, Liberation Heavy Trucks, and Auman to recover their sales, and their market share has increased. Dongfeng Company temporarily ranked in the "third", Futian Auman once again ranked "fourth", Shaanxi Heavy Duty Automobile temporarily stayed "fifth."

The 4 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year caused the “second wave of growth in 2009” in the heavy truck market.

The dump truck is the "first model" benefiting from the "4 trillion" domestic demand. Looking at the trend of domestic heavy-duty truck market, the auto industry policy is the main driver of annual growth of the heavy-duty truck market. However, the period of influence of the industry policy is also an annual one, and the macro-economic impact is generally at least three years. In this regard, we will have a relatively optimistic outlook for the tractor market in the second half of the year and even 2010 and 2011. The “recovery” of the tractor market in the first half of 2009 was a direct market factor. In the second half of 2009, the demand of the tractor market was more from the market's demand for replacement or replacement, and it relied on the following factors to stimulate market demand.

1. Fuel tax reduces truck users by about 77.8 billion yuan a year

According to statistics from the Ministry of Communications, at the end of 2007, there were 8,492,200 vehicles on the roads nationwide, an increase of 465,600 over the end of the previous year. Among them, 684.49 million trucks and 31.356 million tons were trucks, which increased 438,400 units and 3,100.00 million tons respectively over the end of the previous year. For the calculations to be convenient and feasible, we use only the predicted values ​​for 2007 and 2008 as the benchmark. According to the numerical analysis, after the implementation of the fuel tax in 2009, China’s commercial vehicle users will receive a “minimum” return of 77.8 billion yuan, which does not consider the value of the oil price cut on January 1, 2009.

2. Fuel tax makes tractor road transport the “most economical model”

(1) Comparison of Road Maintenance Charges between Road Tractors and General Trucks The mainstream road transport vehicles in China's heavy truck market are “1+2+3 semi-trailer tractors”, with a tonnage of 30 tons, according to the current toll charges, The total mass of the trucks with shafts and more than six axes is up to 49t. Including road transport management fees (in Gansu Province as an example): 12 yuan/ton/year, 30 tons of vehicles totaling 360 yuan; road maintenance fees (taking Gansu Province as an example): 160 yuan/ton/month, 30 tons of vehicles, 4,800 yuan / Month, 57,600 yuan for the whole year. The total cost of the two types is 57960 yuan, and the average monthly expenditure is 4,830 yuan.

8 × 4 for ordinary trucks, for example, the carrying capacity of 17t, the highway transportation management fee is 204 yuan, the road maintenance fee is 32640 yuan, the two types of costs total 32,844 yuan, the average monthly fixed expenditure of 2737 yuan, before Customers who choose trucks because of road maintenance fees may choose more tractors in the future.

(2) Comparison of revenues between road tractors and general trucks: more than 60,000 annual revenues

Based on the premise of single revenue, take a 1+2+3 semi-trailer truck as an example, load 30 tons of cargo with zero-load cargo, travel mileage of 1000km, freight rate of 0.411 yuan/tkm, and user revenue of 12,330 yuan; see also 8 ×4 General cargo trucks, loading and transporting 20 tons of cargo with a cargo load of 1,000 tons. The mileage is 1000km, the freight rate is 0.411 yuan/tkm, and the user revenue is 8,220 yuan. In the same situation, the 1+2+3 semi-trailer has a relatively high return of 4,110 yuan each time. With an annual mileage of 150,000 km, the revenue is 61,650 yuan more.

3. Class 2 highway toll station was cancelled, and annual reduction of road transport vehicles was “9 million”

Up to now, China has already cancelled the repayment of government secondary roads in 12 provinces, including Shandong and Jiangsu, and cancelled 1,263 sites, which accounted for 65% of the total amount of second-level highway toll stations of the government. Cancelling “toll stations below the secondary road” will greatly reduce the operating costs of the vehicle owners. We will calculate the following: Take the semi-trailer tractor 1+2+3 heavy truck users as an example. The monthly mileage is 10,000 km, and the annual mileage is 120,000 km. . According to the “Implementation Plan (Trial) for clearing and rectifying road toll stations (pilots)” (No. 9 [1999] of Highways) issued by the Ministry of Communications in 1999, the overall adjustment and improvement of the conditions for setting toll highways were adopted. Analysis of the average distance between passengers and cargoes on roads shows that the distance between the toll stations (points) is about 40km. Based on this we calculate the following:

Each time the vehicle's toll is 30 yuan, the monthly toll is 7,500 yuan, and the annual toll is 90,000 yuan. After cancelling the second-level charges, it is expected to reduce considerable costs.

4. Tax rebates on tractor export rebates increased again: promotion of export growth

With the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice to increase the export tax rebate rate for certain commodities, which will be implemented on June 1, 2009: agricultural machinery and semi-trailers with exports in exports, and the export tax rebate rate will be raised to 15%. . To a certain extent, it will benefit the export of semi-trailer tractors. Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Sinotruk, Weichai Power, Jiangsu Yueda, Quanchai Power, and JAC Power will benefit from this. The export tax rebates for containers and tank trailers and semi-trailers both increased from 14% to 15%.

5. In the second half of 2009, the total demand for the road tractor market was 112,800. The year was basically the same as in 2007.

Considering various factors, we have given relatively optimistic judgments in the second half of 2009 that there are relatively many favorable factors for domestic demand in the towing vehicle market: “Continued increase in total freight volume”, weight-based charging policies and foreign export markets, etc. The extent of the impact is expected to be about 112,800 tractors market demand in the second half of 2009.

The overall demand for the heavy truck market will increase in the second half of the year and it is expected to break the 550,000 mark in the whole year

The “recovery” of the tractor market in the first half of 2009 was a direct market factor, and the demand for the tractor market in the second half of the year was more from the market's demand for replacement or replacement, and it relied on the following factors to stimulate market demand. According to the trend of the heavy-duty truck market in the first half of the year, the tractor market is picking up and has completed the market's "relay." In the second half of the year, the main models of the heavy truck market are concentrated on the growth of the tractor market.

At the same time, the market demand for heavy truck market exports remains strong, which is undoubtedly a new growth point for domestic heavy truck companies.

According to the above analysis, in the second half of the year, domestic demand in the heavy truck market has rebounded significantly, but international demand will make up for the domestic market. In the second half of the year, the total demand for the heavy truck market is forecast to be more than 279,000 units, and it is expected to exceed 550,000 vehicles again in the whole year. .

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