Experts predict that China's auto market will remain weak in 2012

At the beginning of the new year, the auto market in 2011 has become history, and the prelude of the auto market in 2012 was officially opened. In the past year, the overall development of the automotive market has slowed down, and sales have also shown a slow development. What will happen to the Chinese auto market in 2012? Whether it is the implementation of the new vehicle tax law, the blowout of the auto market, the launch of the German new energy vehicle, the spread of the purchase restriction policy, and the development of Japanese cars, the introduction of school bus safety standards, the western transfer of the automobile industry, the conglomeration of 4S stores, the decline in the total number of new cars, and online Selling cars will become a hot spot in the Chinese auto market in 2012.

1. The new vehicle and boat tax law was formally implemented, and the sales of large-displacement and autonomous vehicles were affected.

According to the Draft of the People's Republic of China Taxation Law for Vehicles and Vehicles, the new tax policy for China’s passenger and boat ships will be divided into seven gradients to be taxed in accordance with the displacement. Passenger and vehicle taxes for passenger cars with displacements of 1.0 liters or less have decreased. 1.0 The passenger and vehicle taxes for all passenger cars in the above categories will be increased to varying degrees. The higher the displacement, the more tax will be paid on the vessels. The implementation of this method will take effect on January 1, 2012. It is understood that according to the new measures, the taxes on vehicles and boats will be based on Passenger car engine cylinder capacity levied, such a taxation method is very unfavorable for self-owned brand models.

2. In 2012, the downturn was still maintained and the auto market was not blown out.

The overall development of the auto market in 2011 was relatively low. Compared with the leap-forward development in 2010, the 2% increase is expected to be very small. Judging from the current market situation, the possibility of maintaining this year's slow growth trend in 2012 is greater, and there is almost no possibility of blowout-type development. In addition to many subsidies policies to withdraw from the market, the new travel tax policy for independent brands It is a new blow, so independent brands will face more severe tests this year.

3. New trends in the brand of new energy vehicles, the German-based new energy vehicles will exert strength.

In the past 2011, the field of new energy vehicles has been the leading role of Japanese and self-owned brand models. As the representative of the European cars, the German cars have been relatively low-key, and no major action has exploded. In fact, they have not given up on new energy vehicles, especially pure The exploration of the electric vehicle sector is expected to focus on this year's efforts. Among them, last year's domestic testing of the Volkswagen New Bora electric version, Golf electric version may be in small batch production this year, in addition to Mini E in 2011 is also a small-scale The customer trials are getting closer and closer to formal sales. It is worth mentioning that Mercedes-Benz signed a joint venture agreement with BYD in May 2010 with a total investment of RMB 600 million. The goal of establishing a joint venture company is electric vehicles. It is understood that the new brand will be officially released early this year, and the first new car will be unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show in April.

4. Will the auto market restriction policy spread from Beijing to other major cities?

The Beijing Municipal Government officially released the news that the Shake Car Policy will continue to be implemented this year and the details will be adjusted. From January to October last year, Beijing's new cars sold 310,000 cars, which was a significant drop from sales of 800,000 in 2010, and traffic jams in Beijing have not been effectively mitigated. On July 11 last year, Guiyang Municipal Government Guiyang Municipal Government executive meeting approved and implemented the “Provisional Regulations on the Administration of Number Plates for Small Passenger Cars in Guiyang”, and issued special section number plates and ordinary number plates for passenger cars newly entered in this Municipality. . Among them, the number of annual growth of the special section number plate is subject to total control, and can be allocated on a free-to-the-road basis by means of a trombone, which can be used on all roads. Ordinary number plates cannot be used on roads within the city's first ring road (inclusive).

5, Japanese cars are coming back, and new cars will use frequent departures from the auto market this year.

In the past 2011, the overall sales of Japanese brands under the influence of the earthquake were sluggish. Although there was a clear recovery in June of last year, there was still a big gap compared with that before the earthquake. Nowadays, after more than four months of buffering and adjustment period, the Japanese automobile industry has gradually gone out of the shadow of a major earthquake, and it is believed that it will concentrate its efforts in 2012. To seize the market share lost by the earthquake, a large number of new Japanese cars and remodel cars will be queued for listing. For example, the new Camry and Lexus CT200h, which were postponed by the earthquake, have all been marketed last year. At the same time, a series of price reductions have been initiated in the sales of Japanese models, and the price reductions have continued to increase.

In October last year, the Toyota Motor R&D Center was formally opened in Changshu, Jiangsu Province. It will be Toyota's largest global R&D center and will promote localized new energy vehicles. Honda will release a whole new generation of CRV. Mazda has replaced its brand new management. The original FAW Mazda General Manager Yamaoka Jiro has transferred back to Japan. From the Mazda headquarters in Japan, Kenzo Takeshito took over as general manager, and former FAW Mazda deputy general manager Yu Hongjiang. After leaving the company, Tian Qingjiu, the deputy general manager of FAW Jilin Automobile Co., Ltd., took over his position. It is believed that this is all for the preparation of an official force. In 2012, it will be the year when Japanese brands have erupted again.

6. School bus safety standards will be formulated.

In order to strengthen the safety management of school buses and ensure the personal safety of the children and students who ride by cars, the State Council Legislative Affairs Office promulgated the "Regulations on School Bus Safety (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)" on December 11 last year. It seeks opinions from various sectors of society and stipulates that local governments at and above the county level shall Take measures to develop public transport, rationally plan and set up public transport routes and stations, and provide convenience for students who need to go to school by car. School bus safety standards have not been introduced, but the State Council has clearly planned to do a good job in school bus design, production, transformation, and equipment. It is expected that this year will be introduced.

7. The automobile industry is now moving in the west.

As early as 2000, the state issued a policy for the development of the western region to support the development and construction of the western region, and to achieve coordinated development in the eastern and western regions. Many industries began to migrate westward. The automobile industry was subject to factors such as transportation, and most of the factories were in the east. With the gradual increase in labor costs, some enterprises have started to develop in the west. Volkswagen has already stepped westward. It is reported that Shanghai Volkswagen will set up a wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Volkswagen (Xinjiang) Co., Ltd. in Xinjiang. The project plans to invest a total of 2 billion yuan and plans to start production in 2013.

8. The survival of 4S shop single stores is becoming increasingly difficult, and the group has become a new trend.

As early as in 2009, the trend of auto 4S store grouping began to show its advantages, and several large groups began to shift to the stock market to raise funds. In March 2010, Dalian Zhongsheng was formally listed in Hong Kong and raised 367 million U.S. dollars, creating domestic car sales. A precedent for the listing of sectors. In April last year, the huge auto trade officially landed A shares, the first domestic A-share listed IPO auto dealership service provider. It is difficult for a single store to support the high-investment industry of car sales. With the fierce competition and the cooling of the market, more 4S store mergers and acquisitions are expected in 2012.

9. In 2012, the number of new cars is expected to drop by 26% compared to 2011

Although major manufacturers have different market expectations for 2012, they still have no weakness in the launch of new cars. No less than 64 new models from independent brands, European and American brands, and Japanese and Korean brands have appeared in the Chinese market, including the Beijing Auto Show in April. It will be the first choice for heavyweight new cars. At present, many new cars have been set for the Beijing Auto Show. However, compared with the 86 new cars in 2011, the number has fallen by 26%. This also reflects that car manufacturers are not very optimistic about the 2012 auto market.

10, the conditions are not mature, online selling hard to become a climate.

With the rapid development of e-commerce, many manufacturers are also trying, at the end of 2010 Geely Global Eagle brand car - Panda stationed in Taobao Mall for online sales, Mercedes-Benz Smart is also Taobao group purchase followed by Lamborghini also opened its first online showroom. It should be said that this kind of online sales is good and bad, there are good aspects that can save the cost of physical stores, and people are still more practical for such large-scale goods, so this is also an online selling car There is a long way to go.