Development and Reform Commission: After the Olympic Games, oil prices will be adjusted according to energy conditions
Huarong Securities analyst Wang Zejun believes that the adjustment of electricity prices and refined oil prices in June did not change the state of losses of power generation and refining companies. Straightening out the energy price mechanism is still the top priority for government energy work.
Different from the adjustment of electricity prices, China's oil prices are actually more affected by fluctuations in international futures oil prices. Simply put, one of the reasons for adjusting the electricity price is because the prices of the two products of electricity and coal have not converged, and the coal price has been deregulated in recent years. As a purchasing power generation company, it will be affected by high costs. With the government's reasonable control of the upstream coal price, once the tariff is adjusted, the burden on the power plant will be reduced accordingly.
However, as a refinery company, its upstream procurement costs are relatively difficult to control, and China does not have much right to speak in the three major futures markets. If the price of crude oil futures such as WTI and Brent is consistently high, then the prices of crude oil products obtained by refineries in the Middle East, South America, etc. will also increase. At this time, the cost of the oil refining business that has taken advantage of cannot be transmitted to the domestic refined oil retail market. It is difficult for the intermediate link to continue to make profits.
Wang Zejun's point of view is that although Brent crude oil prices fell from 147.25 US dollars a barrel in July to 111.94 US dollars on August 18, a drop of 24%, but this decline still can not make up for the domestic and foreign price difference, domestic refined oil still There is a spread of around 1,500 yuan per ton. The international oil price is still at a relatively high level. Therefore, the adjustment of the refined oil retail price may continue.
Another analyst who did not want to be named said that Zhang Guobao's speech implied the factors of uncertainty in the future market. This statement is not very clear that the future will certainly be adjusted, can not fully interpret the management's intentions. Even if foreign energy prices continue to rise, if the domestic economy is difficult to bear, then the possibility of adjusting refined oil is relatively small.
Since oil prices are difficult to predict, Liu Bo, an analyst with Guo Jin Securities, also believes that if oil prices are adjusted after the Olympics, they must pay more attention to observing the trend of international futures oil prices. Domestic prices may also be adjusted downwards. The basic condition for this downward adjustment is that oil prices have fallen to $90/barrel.