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"True reminder" just passed in 2015, people have turned their eyes to 2016.
Will the heavy truck market in 2016 grow? In the heavy truck market in 2016, even if the overall growth does not increase, which market segments will grow?
The overall market: increase or decrease?
As the economic situation is not optimistic, most of the companies in the heavy truck market in 2016 are more cautious and their forecasts are generally conservative. They say that they are growing. They are indeed not confident enough to be aggressive, because after all, the macroeconomic situation in 2016, even Many economists are pessimistic and the manufacturing sector is almost hopeless. It is said that the decline will have too great a blow to the morale of dealers and company teams. After all, the heavy truck market in 2015 has fallen by about 27%. Among these, Shaanxi Automobile's prediction judgment can be said to represent the mainstream view.
At the Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Trucks 2016 Business Conference held on December 8, 2015, Zhou Yinchao, deputy general manager of Shaanxi Auto, judged that with the heavy truck industry entering a mature and stable period, the 2016 heavy truck market sales will remain at around 550,000 vehicles. It is basically the same as that of the same period of last year; the proportion of tractors will further expand, from 48.4% in 2015 to 51%; the proportion of trucks will increase from 23.4% in 2015 to 25%; the tipper will continue to slump and is expected to account for It will continue to fall to 15% from 19.4% in 2015. 
Although most companies are cautious about the overall market in 2016, there are also a few companies that are relatively optimistic. At the FAW Liberation Business Conference held on December 22, Jing Qingchun, general manager of FAW Jiefang Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., believes that the overall market demand for medium-heavy trucks in 2016 is expected to be 750,000 vehicles, which will have an impact on 800,000 vehicles. Moreover, he The market segment analysis reports are based on 800,000 vehicles.
800,000 vehicles, equivalent to an increase of 8% over 2015. Jing Jing thinks that the negative factors of the market in 2016 are mainly the deceleration of GDP growth. In 2016, the estimated GDP growth rate is 6.7%, and the proportion of fixed asset investment continues to decrease, which will reduce the demand for 50,000 heavy-duty trucks; however, favorable factors are Relatively more. First of all, the national five emission regulations are expected to be implemented in early 2017. This will lead to customers' early purchases in 2016, which will increase demand by 20,000 units. Secondly, the price of natural gas will be lowered, and the ratio of gas to diesel in many provinces and cities will drop below 0.6. Increase the market demand of 20,000 vehicles; Third, the implementation of the yellow mark car out policy from the eastern coast to the west will increase the demand of 20,000; Fourth, the logistics express courier pull the main line, branch logistics vehicle update, will increase demand 10,000 Vehicles; Fifth, the implementation of the three major national strategies including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the “One Road and One Belt†will boost the market demand by 30,000 vehicles. In addition, export demand will increase by 10,000 in 2016.
“In 2016, the tractors are expected to sell 270,000 vehicles, an increase of 15,000 vehicles year-on-year; trucks are expected to sell 270,000 vehicles, an increase of 12,000 vehicles year-on-year; dump trucks are expected to grow 25,000 vehicles, and special vehicles are expected to increase by 5,000 vehicles.†Jing youth analysis said. 
Which market segments will "fire"?
At the several business conferences held in December, although the CEOs did not completely agree with the overall situation in 2016, the judgments of several market segments coincided.
The first is the contrarian increase in tractors above 400 hp. In 2015, despite a significant increase in the proportion of sales in the tractor market, the decline rate in January-November was only 10%, which was far lower than the 27% decline in the industry, but it also declined. However, the tractor with more than 400 hp was finer. The sales in the sub-market in 2015 can be said to continue to advance rapidly, and the trend is rapidly rising. Especially in the second half of the year, the monthly sales volume of tractors with more than 400 horsepower has exceeded 25%. In 2016, this trend will be further accelerated and will not be reversed. The high transport efficiency and low fuel consumption that these products bring to logistics customers are irreplaceable for smaller power engines.
In fact, in order to compete for this strategic market, all mainstream heavy truck and engine companies are now in formation, deploying more than 400 horsepower market, such as FAW Xichai 6DM2 Aowei engine, China National Heavy Duty's Man MC11/MC13 engine, Dongfeng The DCI11 and Dongfeng Cummins ISZ13 engines, Foton Cummins ISG11/12 super power, have achieved mass production and sales. Moreover, only in December 2015, two companies announced the launch of 13L heavy truck products: Shaanxi Automobile announced at the business conference DeLong X3000 gold version of the market, equipped with Weichai WP13 engine, power coverage of 480-550 hp; followed by FAW Liberation announced that it will sell J6P13L heavy-duty trucks in batches in 2016, equipped with 13L Xichai Aowei CA6DM3 engines with power from 500 hp and up to 550 hp. Now, Tianlong’s flagship, Liberation J6P, Auman’s GTL Super Edition, Heavy Duty Truck Judeka C7H, Shaanxi Auto DeLong X3000, Hongyan Jie Lion’s Cheung Tu Edition and so on have already had 13L models around 420-550 hp. The competition in the market segments will be a major attraction in 2016. 
The second is that the demand for the express delivery industry will continue to be strong. In 2015, due to the transformation of the economic structure, the intensive process of the logistics market was accelerated, and the express express operation industry represented by e-commerce logistics was developing rapidly. The sales of transport vehicles that served as courier and express transportation services grew rapidly, and their typical features were high-end. , high efficiency, high reliability, high power, and customers are relatively insensitive to price. In 2016, the industry will continue to grow at a high speed, and will promote the continued rapid growth of express delivery vehicles such as 6×4 tractors, 4×2 tractors, 6×2 trucks, and 4×2 trucks. There will be more than 100,000 tractors sold in this area.
The third is the residue truck. Although the dump truck market in 2015 was a lot of order news, it was actually not as imaginative as the fire, and the decline was equally large, with a rough estimate of a year-on-year drop of no less than 40% (about 70% of the total dump truck drop). One of the reasons is that on the one hand, in 2014, many yellow-labeled vehicles were renewed and slag trucks were renewed in developed coastal regions, which caused certain overdrafts in 2015; on the other hand, in 2015, many provinces, cities, and regions were developing new slags. Land-car standards, customer wait-and-see and hold-to-buy are serious. All of these factors have adversely affected the 2015 slag truck market. In 2016, with the continuous introduction of new residue truck standards and policies throughout the country, the residue truck market is expected to increase year-on-year, with a total market sales of over 35,000 vehicles.
High-power, express express, muck, which market is worth paying attention to?
　　
Heavy truck exports will fire?
Some domestic market segments still have expectations and heavy truck exports? Will exports continue to grow like 2014 and 2015?
The reporter analyzed that there is still room for growth in the heavy truck export market in 2016. In 2015, China’s total exports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks are expected to reach 120,000, and in 2016 it is expected to reach 130,000-140,000 vehicles. One of the important positive factors is the devaluation of the renminbi. According to the latest data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center on December 30, 2015, the middle price of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market yesterday was US$1 to RMB6.4864, down 114 basis points from the previous trading day, which was set at 14 June 2011. The new low since the day. With the Fed raising interest rates and China’s accession to the SDR (International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights) and other events, the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to become stronger.
When the author communicated with several CEOs of commercial vehicle manufacturers such as Yutong in November 2015, it has been learned that in recent years, the appreciation of the renminbi has become a deterrent to the export of Chinese mechanical and electrical goods, including automobiles. Therefore, the moderate depreciation and mild devaluation of the renminbi will greatly promote the export of commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks and passenger cars. 
In this regard, there are also financial media analysis that "the expected devaluation of the renminbi is strong. For the market, the biggest beneficiary is definitely the export industry. Looking at a set of data, the IMF used the historical data of 60 economies 1980-2014. The real effective exchange rates calculated in terms of CPI and PPI have been estimated, and the results show that the exchange rate depreciation has a significant negative inhibitory effect on export prices, while export prices have a significant inhibitory effect on export volume, and thus exchange rate depreciation has an effect on exports. Promote the role of the exchange rate devaluation to stimulate exports and curb imports, which means that the trade surplus will increase significantly.Look at China's data, through the results of data estimates over the past 20 years show that a devaluation of the RMB nominal effective exchange rate of 10% will push up economic growth. 0.77 percentage points. After the WTO accession, the impact of the exchange rate on the economy has been significantly strengthened. A 10% exchange rate devaluation will increase the economic growth by 1.16 percentage points."
In this regard, under the impetus of the exchange rate, unlike the Southeast Asia regions in Vietnam, such as Vietnam, where the export growth of heavy trucks in 2015 is different, in 2016, China's truck exports are expected to further increase in other regions such as Africa and other regions.