Electric cars, the market is the final decider
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Giving full play to the construction of active charging facilities for all parties should give full play to the enthusiasm of all parties, and promote the practice of rapid, slow charging and quick change of multiple routes. In fact, these models and technological advances in charging facilities, automotive battery technology advances, and the development of operating models are interrelated and mutually constraining, and there are certainly different charging and exchanging modes at different stages.
The correct approach at this stage should be to pass experiments, let the practice speak, and encourage the enthusiasm of all parties. After all, electric cars are not yet mature and there are not many possessions. It is impossible to make money in the short term. However, infrastructure construction requires a lot of money to invest and consumes a lot of energy. Encouragement should be given to enthusiastic participants. Only when the promotion of electric vehicles reaches a certain amount can industry development see results.
Concentrated power exchange, slow charging, and fast charging have their own advantages, and they are inseparable from the battery's specific capacity, automotive technology, and user habits. In the process of advancing the entire industry, a most reasonable model may be formed. Just like the current gas station, its business area and outlet settings have regular patterns that need to be determined based on the growth rate of car ownership and the speed of road growth.
Adhering to the model of user-oriented rapid change, supplemented by slow charging, and centralized distribution may be the best solution currently available from the current stage. However, if the number of electric vehicles in the future increases to a certain scale, it is not necessarily the best. The best plan.
The most important thing is to insist on user orientation. Take the introduction of automobile models as an example. Although automotive research and development involves many specific details, the most important determinant factor for automakers is what kind of cars customers need. In the first stage of car development, it is not the first drawing of drawings, but the market research on how much displacement, high speed and other factors a vehicle needs. First understand what kind of configuration the user likes, whether it is automatic or manual, how much power is needed, and then sort out the comments and do vehicle planning.
The same is true of electric vehicles. It should be determined by the market. It is not determined by the boss, nor is it determined by the engineer. It is appropriate to charge or change the power, and ultimately it should be decided by the market. If there are 5 million electric vehicle users in the country, if 4 million users choose to change the mode, if the company also emphasizes charging mode, then it will certainly lose the market.
In fact, the reason that automotive companies think that the change of electricity is unrealistic is that the wheelbase and wheelbase of the car are determined based on the actual use of the market over the years. It cannot be said that the battery box prescribed by the battery change mode is three meters long and must be Three meters long, even if the wheelbase is not enough, we must let it go. This unscientific limit will have a fundamental impact on the performance and safety of the vehicle. Moreover, according to the user's requirements and the performance of the car, the automaker has calculated the structure and size of the car back. Therefore, it cannot be subjectively and arbitrarily determined that the structure of the car must be adapted to the battery compartment.
Going to the market to temper In certain circumstances, changing the power is certainly appropriate. For example, for bus systems and taxi companies, it is convenient to change the mode. However, private use of electric vehicles may not be suitable at this stage. First of all, from a psychological point of view, after the user bought a new car, using the battery today, using that battery tomorrow, there will be concerns about the quality of the battery. When the user's concerns are not resolved, the company will not adopt the power exchange mode. From a consumer's point of view, if the user can recharge while going home, he may feel that he has trouble replacing the battery. If he does not have a charging condition at home, he will certainly want to change it.
Secondly, the quality of the connectors used for battery replacement has no influence on the performance and safety of the vehicle and it is difficult to judge. So there is a shadow in the customer's heart. We have done special experiments and found that one of the problems with power exchange is the problem of connector wear. Even the use of silver-plated connectors will quickly wear out, and the increase in resistance will increase the amount of heat, which does have an impact on safety. Electric car batteries are not like mobile phone batteries. Mobile phone batteries have a small size, low voltage, and high dimensional accuracy. It is easy to install accurately. Electric vehicle battery voltage is generally more than 300 volts, the battery box is a few hundred pounds, and will continue to move as the car moves to friction the connector, so the connector must be flexible between the inevitable, this has resulted in The problem of positional alignment, otherwise the mechanical part cannot withstand long-term collisions. Problems such as alignment and wear of the connectors will not be acceptable to private users if they are not resolved.
Lastly, the driving range of privately-operated electric vehicles is generally short. If you drive for 20 or 30 kilometers a day, you may need to charge only twice a week. There is no need to change electricity. And the battery swapping mode is also closely related to the battery capacity. If the battery capacity is really as expected, the cost will be doubled and the performance will be doubled after ten years. By 2020, a battery can last 500 kilometers. At that time, the meaning of quick change is not great.