Exploring the possibility of LED lighting industry stepping in the photovoltaic industry
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The collapse of the LED lighting industry is spreading. After many enterprises in Shenzhen closed down, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, has successively closed down. According to media reports, in July this year, a lighting factory owner in Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, who had a scale of more than 100 million yuan, suddenly lost his mind, owing more than 50 million yuan in loans and the wages of hundreds of workers behind him. Recently, the Guzhen Town Government of Zhongshan City reported that another boss of Xiongji Lighting Factory, which is over 100 million yuan in size, ran. At present, the over-million salary of more than 300 male employees has been advanced by the Guzheng government, and the 38 suppliers of Xiongji have not paid more than 40 million yuan.
The fuse of the boss’s running event was a quality problem with its products, which led customers to no longer cooperate with them, and the capital chain of Xiongji was broken. Xiongji is a company that has switched from traditional lamps to LED lights with policy support. It is known for its low price in the market. Its LED bulbs are sold for only 3.8 yuan. According to this price, even the cost of investment is Hard to fill. The fall of Xiong Kee shows that without core technology, the market will be seized at a low price, and eventually it will be eliminated by the market.
According to statistics from Zhongshan Science and Technology Bureau, there were more than 1,200 LED companies in Zhongshan City in 2012, including nearly 100 enterprises above designated size, employing more than 70,000 people. In 2012, the output value reached 35.65 billion yuan. In China, there are not many LED companies like Xiongji. Many enterprises rely on subsidies and rely on projects to survive. They also cause banks to worry about non-performing loans. People are worried about whether the LED industry will become the second photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry once flourished under the support of the government. There are hundreds of photovoltaic industrial parks built across the country, and there are thousands of photovoltaic enterprises. However, in the case of weak internal and external demand, the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry is in jeopardy. In March of this year, the photovoltaic giant Wuxi Suntech was bankrupt.
Also based on the consideration of energy saving and emission reduction, China has issued a number of policies to support and encourage the development of the LED industry since 2009. It is clear that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the annual growth rate of LED industry should be promoted to around 30, and in 2015, it will reach 450 billion yuan, of which 180 billion yuan will be applied to LED industry.
To this end, local governments have also proposed a local version of the LED industry development policy. For example, the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of LED Industry in Guangdong Province proposes that by 2015, one or two leading enterprises with an output value of 10 billion yuan will be cultivated, and one or two industrial clusters with an output value of 100 billion yuan will be cultivated. The industrial scale exceeded 300 billion yuan. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, Guangdong Provincial Finance will invest 450 million yuan each year to set up special funds for LED industry development.
Shenzhen also proposed that enterprises participating in the LED demonstration project of government investment projects should receive a subsidy of 10 according to the price of the lamps and a discount for 3 years. For enterprises that undertake the LED application demonstration project of enterprise investment projects, subsidies shall be given according to 30 of the price of LED lamps.
At one time, the LED project was on the road and the industry developed rapidly. However, since 2011, the overheated investment in the LED industry has caused overcapacity, resulting in a rapid decline in prices, which has also made some companies struggling. The Shenzhen market, as a concentrated area of ​​the LED industry, has appeared in many areas, such as Duo Duoli, Vision Optoelectronics, and Haobo Optoelectronics. Yuan-level LED companies closed down.
To this end, in March this year, the Shenzhen Municipal Government abolished the "Notice on Printing and Printing Shenzhen LED Industry Development Plan (2009-2015)" in the form of "Government Gazette" for more than four years. For more than four years, the plan has been shackled. Although the document did not disclose the specific reasons and details, it is not unrelated to the development of the industry, especially overcapacity and overheated investment.
At present, the LED industry is like the photovoltaic industry, and there are core technical defects in the upstream. The data shows that although there are more than 4,000 LED industry manufacturers in China, the total LED output value of China's mainland in 2012 reached 205.9 billion yuan, of which 159 billion yuan belonged to downstream terminal applications, accounting for 77.2, while the output value of upstream LED chips was only 7.2 billion yuan. , accounting for 3.5. China's LED core technology is lacking, resulting in an extremely unbalanced structure of the development of the industry.
In recent years, the emulation of the LED industry by local governments has laid a hidden danger for the current overcapacity. What is even more worrying is that while LED investment has become more and more surplus, there are still many local governments still do not lose this heat. In the view of many local governments, although China's LED lacks core technology, its domestic market is broad due to its wide range of applications. As a sunrise industry supported by the state, the LED industry is still promising.
It is true that LEDs will be favored by the market because of their energy-saving and durable features. However, the high price of LEDs and the immature industry are also affecting their development. Although from the perspective of industrial growth, the LED industry may develop at a rapid rate, but high growth is the result of the combined effect of the incremental market and the stock market, rather than the government's wishful thinking. If government investment leads to capacity expansion, once it exceeds the demand, it will undoubtedly increase the existing overcapacity, and the LED industry has the danger of entering the photovoltaic dust.
As a relatively large policy-dependent LED industry, its development undoubtedly requires the scientific and stable policies. However, the government should reduce direct intervention, avoid local protection, and make good use of the market reversal mechanism to encourage mergers and acquisitions and eliminate backward production capacity. The tangible hand should be placed on the development of standards and testing systems suitable for industrial development.