Report: 2013 Tire Market Development Forecast
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According to the Outline of the Outline of the 12th Five-Year Development Plan for China's Rubber Industry, the target for the development of tire products during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is to increase the radialization rate from 80% to 85%; industry access and industrial concentration goals include the construction of new passenger vehicles. No less than 6 million tires/year, no less than 1.2 million new radial tires, and no production of biased tire production lines.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's auto industry will still be in a period of rapid development. Experts expect that in 2015, total automobile production will reach 25 million - 30 million, and the auto industry will continue to drive the continuous growth of tire production and sales. Driven by the rapid development of the automobile industry, China's tire industry has developed rapidly. Tire production and export volume has ranked first in the world for many years. It is the most important force in the world's tire industry and has a considerable impact on the global tire market.
However, we should also see that in 2012, the number of domestic tire manufacturers reached 1,000 (including tires), and the number has increased. The vast majority of them are SMEs, and the industry concentration is still fluctuating. Most tire manufacturers are pursuing short-term economic benefits more often than others. They have less investment in technology research and development, weak research and development capabilities, and difficulty in upgrading product grades. There is still a large gap between production technology and technology and international standards, and the core competitiveness is obviously insufficient. The sustainable development of China's tire industry. At the same time, there are more and more barriers in the international market, and tire companies have little profit. Therefore, adapting to market demand and innovating continuously are necessary conditions for the rapid development of tire companies.
Industry experts pointed out that the situation of China's tire industry is relatively clear in 2013, the operating environment of the company will be good, tire production and sales will gradually improve, especially corporate profits will increase significantly, and will give birth to a wave of tire investment small climax.
First, the domestic market gradually improved
"The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China" clarified the implementation of the strategy of urbanization in our country. The continued advancement of urbanization has allowed the city's building area to expand continuously, which is conducive to the gradual recovery of the automobile market and the development of the tire industry. In 2013, the demand for China's tire market will show upward trend.
From the matching market, with the continuous increase in automobile production and sales, the demand for tires will increase. From the perspective of replacing the tire market, as China's economic growth rate rises slightly, the number of cars will continue to increase, and the volume of road freight will increase. Both passenger traffic and highway freight turnover will increase significantly. All these factors will drive replacement market demand.
The main growth drivers for sales of passenger tires come from the lower gasoline prices and the country’s old-fashioned vehicle replacement policy. It is expected that the sales growth of China’s passenger tires will increase by more than 15% in 2013; based on the significant increase in the number of giant radial tires in 2012, In 2013, due to the expansion of production capacity and supply in short supply, it is predicted that sales revenue will increase by more than 20%; sales of all steel trucks will depend on the transportation market, domestic “steady growth†stimulus measures, infrastructure investment, and real estate market recovery. Stability and increased investment growth will effectively promote the development of the transportation and extractive industries, thereby increasing the demand for all-steel load-bearing tires. It is expected that the increase in all-steel load-bearing tires in 2013 will also be much higher than in 2012.
Second, the export situation has improved significantly
With the slow recovery of the world economy, the international automobile industry has picked up, the international market demand will show an upward trend, and tire exports will increase. After September 2012, the United States lifted the three-year special tariff on China’s passenger tires. This is an opportunity for the development of China’s tires. The traditional export enterprises in the United States will benefit, and exports will show significant growth.
The demand for automotive and tires in North America is picking up. It is expected that North America will be the region with the largest increase in tire exports in 2013. Although the EU adopted the tire labeling method last November, the threshold for this year is F grade. This has little effect on the export of large-scale tire enterprises in China. Only a handful of small-scale tire companies have given up the EU market. However, the European Union’s auto sales are not ideal and it is expected that the EU’s tire exports will be difficult to increase. Russia and other countries are the tire industry in China this year, focusing on the development of the market, with rapid development, and will continue to maintain rapid growth in the next few years.
Third, investment enthusiasm rose again
Tire industry operating environment will increase confidence in tire investment, profit growth and interest reduction are conducive to tire investment, which may lead to another small investment in China's tires upsurge.
The focus of tire investment will be to use tires as the first choice, and some companies will expand their production capacity and take the path of economies of scale. A number of new projects will rise and three tire projects will be announced in the first quarter. First, Jilin Jixing Tire Co., Ltd. has 15 million pieces of steel tires per year, including 7.5 million pieces of the first phase; the second is Ningxia Dadi Chemical Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 10 million pieces of semi-annual steel tires; and the third is the extension of rubber companies with 10 million pieces/year. Semi-steel tires.
It is estimated that in 2013 China's semi-steel tire projects will be 50 million or more. There are also more investment in engineering tires. Currently, projects such as Tianjin International, Guizhou Tire, Cooper Chengshan, and Quzhou Huaqin Group have been announced one after another. It is expected that this year will be a year in which China’s engineering tire production capacity will increase rapidly. All-steel heavy-duty tires are serious due to excess, investment is mainly filled up, and investment is showing a downward trend.
At the same time, the continuous development of the tire industry in China will drive the development of the upstream and downstream industries. Recently, the rubber machinery industry in the upper reaches of the country has shown signs of obvious recovery. Some companies have recently received large orders, and the giant wheel shares have received large orders for engineering tire equipment. The raw materials such as carbon black also showed signs of recovery, and a group of carbon black companies announced that they will expand production capacity. It is predicted that this year's tires and related industries will be a good year.