In 2011, the national coal power production and demand
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“The parties to the contract are still coordinating.†A staff member of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association told the Securities Times reporter. On the “2011 Coal Market Situation Report†sponsored by the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association on the 21st, the Securities Times reporter learned that most current power companies and coal companies have still not reached a consensus agreement on contract coal supply in 2011. "The final result is most likely to be the sum of the deadline, the two sides reported a total amount, but did not report the specific price." Prior to this, the 2010 contract coal agreement has caused long-term disputes between supply and demand sides, until May 2010 Only signed the contract.
The coal and electricity sides will have to accelerate negotiations in the next few days, because in 2011 the country's coal-fired electricity production needs to meet the working hours and 8 days will be over. According to the requirements of China Coal Association, coal supply and demand convergence in 2011, the online contract summary work will be completed at 24:00 on December 31, 2010, followed by coal transportation capacity phase. At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has arranged for a national coal production and transportation demand convergence work plan. In 2011, the total amount of inter-provincial coal blending is estimated to be 932 million tons, which is an increase of 3% over the same period of last year. Among them, the allocation of coal railway capacity to the power industry is 770 million tons. 6.6%.
"Coal and electricity need to establish a reasonable price relationship, the current power needs to be increased by 0.4 yuan / degree in order to make up for losses." Xia Chenchen, general manager of the former Zhongneng Electric Fuel Company and electric fuel expert, said at the meeting, in fact, most of the country The main reason for the shortage of coal supply in the region was that the market’s expectation of a rise in coal prices and the on-grid price remained the same. Power companies faced large losses.
However, in addition to coal-electricity convergence, the more important is the increasing proportion of market coal, making the National Development and Reform Commission demand more and more tests of the influence of the limited coal price limit. According to the statistics from the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, the proportion of national key power coal contracts in power plants accounted for 80% of the total power plant demand in 2004, which is expected to drop to about 53% in 2010.
According to the above-mentioned experts' calculations, the total coal-fired power generation and demand in China will reach 1.7 billion tons in 2011, of which the total amount of inter-provincial coal blending is estimated to be 932 million tons. Compared with 2010, the total supply of domestic coal is 3.4 billion tons. It is expected that the proportion of national key coal contracts for power plants will drop further and fall below 50%.
According to Yan Zhicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, coal imports will continue to surge in the next two to three years in the context of rising overall energy consumption and declining growth rates. The maximum import volume in 2011 will reach 177 million tons. Even after a certain number of years of stability, the import scale will still be around 100 million tons.