The level of chaos in the private car market has recently been proportional to the rise in summer temperatures. Guangzhou has made trouble with Uber, Beijing has talked about it, and a number of cities have triggered mass incidents against the enforcement of the car. While dripping fast and Uber are asking the driver to calm down and soften the competent department, they secretly increase the subsidy incentives, encourage more drivers to join the special car market, and encourage the registered drivers to grab more orders.
At the same time, the merged Didi is fast, since mid-May, it has rapidly expanded its product line, launched express trains, rides, and drivers, and vigorously subsidized the promotion, while also making the rides and e-drives The company's back is cool, but it has seriously affected its own car business, and the orders for Didi and No. 1 have dropped sharply.
In a common chess game, if one party temporarily stays in the wind, one person will choose to wait for the opportunity to turn the plate (using the rules), and the other person will flip the table (reconstruction rules), which is common in common situations. However, this time, after overwhelming the opponent's position in the market on the mass scale, DDT stood up and smashed the table, and personally destroyed the car market that he operated. It was really a strange thing.
In the eyes of ordinary people, Didi is the largest player in the next game to absorb as many traffic participants as possible into their own interest community, resulting in a fait accompli, for the subsequent financing or listing manufacturing performance. This kind of "big chess theory" is actually a disguised conspiracy theory. It is also a lazy analytical idea to attribute all the phenomena that are difficult to interpret to a conspiracy. In the author's view, a more effective analysis than conspiracy theory is not to think too much. If you don't understand a certain number of ways, don't analyze it. Usually, it is more likely to be stinking.
Before the drop, Uber has made a step in the Chinese mainland market. Uber entered the mainland market in the summer of 2014. Didi and the fast launch of the special car service, plus the previous easy to get and AA car rental, the potential market competition There are many. Faced with this situation, Uber uses the low-cost People's Uber product line to open the market. With the low price plus subsidies, and the legend of monthly tens of thousands and luxury cars, Uber has seized part of the market share, but also lost the domestic high-end travel car market, which is the first mistake of Uber.
There are a lot of praises for the Uber model, including the founder of a burdock, to promote their own O2O new products, and to put Uber on the sky, even the system driver can not know the destination, this incredible design is praised For a long time. In fact, in the case of the same low price, the system of single driver blind connection is precisely the fatal injury of Uber, and ultimately led to Uber defeat in the competition. The “sharing economy” and “the driver cannot choose a destination” are the biggest contradictions. If I just came out to play and couldn't make a profit, I couldn't choose a destination. What do I mean?
The so-called sharing economy, the demand for P2P C2C, has always been a pseudo-demand as a person, frequently providing products and services to the outside world and earning income. Do you still think that he is an ordinary individual? Consciously and rhythmically engaged in business behavior, it is already the characteristics of the B-end. The difference is that the size of the business determines whether this person is a small B-end or a large B-end. The former is Taobao, the latter is Jingdong. Since it is a businessman, nature pursues maximum benefits.
Compared with foreign countries, the biggest feature of China's commercial activities is that Chinese society has caused excessive competition due to insufficient resources. The final winner of this competition is often professional players. Imagine that others make a living, you just play and how do you compete with others? In the end, the driver who makes money for the purpose will constitute the provider of the service, and it is obviously unrealistic to expect the owner of the curiosity or the gun to provide stable service.
However, as a personal owner, can you really earn money by joining Uber or Drip Driver?
Let's take a 150,000 bare car as an example to make a simple calculation. In general, the private car has only half of the residual value after five years of purchase. According to the annual travel of 20,000 kilometers, the depreciation of the car per kilometer is 0.75 yuan, and the purchase tax is 0.86 yuan. The car at this price usually has a displacement of 1.6 to 1.8. The fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of the city is about 8 liters. According to the calculation of 6.8 yuan per liter, the fuel cost per kilometer is about 0.54 yuan. The maintenance cost of 100,000 kilometers is about 12,000 yuan, and the conversion per kilometer is 0.12 yuan. Joining the special car, the minimum annual insurance premium is the traffic insurance, the 300,000-person insurance and the passenger-carrying insurance, and the average is 20,000 kilometers, which is about 0.1 yuan per kilometer. The above fees are calculated at a lower level, and the cost per kilometer adds up to 1.6 yuan.
In the case of unsubsidized, in Beijing, for example, the fare per kilometer of the people's Uber and Didi Express is 1.5 yuan, and the long-term fee is 0.25 yuan. If the average speed of the city is 30 kilometers, the income per kilometer is 0.5. Yuan, a total of 2 yuan, the platform is 20%, the driver gets 1.6 yuan per kilometer. Yes, you are not mistaken, you are doing it. If your car has less than 20,000 kilometers per year, if you are not alone or in the middle, if you have traffic violations, if your car price is higher than 150,000, you must lose money. In addition, driving three-way insurance, the longer the driving time on the road, the greater the probability of accidents, this cost is difficult to quantify.
Some comrades said that Didi and Uber have subsidy activities. At present, there are various incentives. We don’t earn passengers’ money and earn money on taxi software. I said that your comrade Tucson is broken. How long do you think their subsidy will last? Do you think they will always let you earn this subsidy? O2O company subsidy behavior do you feel healthy, a penny to wash the car, a dollar massage, door-to-door meal delivery to reduce meals, taxi tickets ... have the ability to stop the subsidy try, users (including passengers and drivers) run better than thieves Still fast.
At the current stage, the mobile Internet project must have a clear profitability. It can no longer engage in any free-to-play business, all of which is a traffic business. Whether it is offline store rents or online advertising diversions, people are buying traffic. There is a flow of products to have income, this is the law of business. In the era of mobile Internet, the traffic portal is extremely scattered, it is difficult to achieve cheap diversion in the PC Internet era, and the traffic is highly differentiated. The traffic that is heavily invested may be wasted with your product. In the case of such high traffic costs, the free thinking of the PC Internet is just like drinking and quenching thirst. Companies that can survive must be the first to make money.
The low-cost and subsidy strategy of Didi and Uber has shaken the foundation of their own survival. The price is a good filter. The high-priced and high-end models in the special market have screened out a number of value users who are willing to pay for a better ride experience, and can bring a good income to the platform. Didi and Uber have long been proven. Since the positioning of the special car is higher than that of the taxi market, the impact on it is extremely limited, and the political influence is not bad. It may be that the government rewards a small red flower for wearing a contradiction.
However, Uber and Didi dropped the fare of the entry-level product line to less than the taxi, and lowered the barrier to entry for the corresponding model.
As a result, the entire market was ruined by the first Monday of the dripping orange Monday travel event, and the system failure was more than one single, causing large-scale complaints;
On the second Monday, a large number of drivers joined in, resulting in more cars than people, difficulty in grabbing orders, and a high record of the speed of taxis on the streets of Beijing, causing the drip to be talked about and stopped the activity;
However, Drip does not do two times, while changing the exemption for single-voucher, the vehicle entry standard will be reduced from more than 100,000 yuan in five years to more than 70,000 in six years. For a time, all the black cars have entered the gang, and various A0-class broken cars have gone everywhere. According to the driver, there are even fake driving licenses to modify the vehicle registration time. (Drips became a black car concentration camp in less than a month. If the government goes to the end of its server, it can use the black car to smash it. It is thought that this is called big chess.)
It may not be enough to make a lot of trouble, and it has not stopped the development of two product lines of speeding and driving. Oh, yes, what else is the food truck, the game center... It is estimated that it will take a few days, and opening the software will open the WeChat.
Written here, think of the rapid drop of a new round of financing, the amount of financing hit a new high, may not be less than 1.5 billion US dollars, the company's valuation rose to 12-15 billion US dollars. This is also the first round of financing after Didi and the quick announcement of the merger. The capital market is a magical existence. If Didi continues to use money for market subsidies, it may also be a way to create social value. Oh, yes, private cars participate in road transport operations for profit, which is currently illegal in China. There is nothing to discuss before this law is amended.

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