The domestic heavy truck market returns to rationality, and the impact of the national IV policy is not significant in the second half of the year.
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A few days ago, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the National Bureau of Statistics China Economic and Economic Monitoring Center jointly issued the first quarter of 2011 China's auto industry climate index. The data shows that the growth rate of automobile production and sales dropped sharply under the influence of macro-control and a number of incentives for the withdrawal of auto consumption policies.
The performance of commercial vehicle companies was also unsatisfactory. It is reported that the net profit of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group's shareholders in the first quarter fell from 174 million yuan in the same period of 2010 to 93 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.14%. The industry generally believes that in the first quarter of 2011, the auto industry is returning to normal operation and there will be no significant growth in the second half of the year.
Market sales return to rational
The national II standard promotes the country III, effectively stimulating sales. However, it is difficult to give a positive answer to the impact of the State III standard's upgrading to the National IV standard.
According to industry insiders, after the development of the auto market in 2010, the users are more rational. If the implementation of the policy is not strong enough, the user will not be too impatient to change the vehicle. In other words, users will be more wait-and-see, consuming time waiting for policy enforcement to take action when the vehicle must be replaced.
The heavy-duty truck market in the second half of 2011 is not very good at this time. In the first half of the year, many policies are in a state of non-implementation. Most commercial-vehicle users are also a wait-and-see attitude in purchasing intent, and market growth is back to rationality. The quality of the market in the second half of the year depends on whether the country actually implements the national IV standard on January 1, 2012. If it is not implemented, the market sales volume may be equal to or slightly lower than 5% in 2010. If executed, it may exceed 5%-8%.
National IV policy has little effect
Compared to the National II standard, the change in the National III standard to the National IV standard is still relatively large, because the technical requirements are more stringent and various companies have already prepared for the implementation of the National IV standard.
In the second half of the year, some policies are still good for the market, but they are not sufficient. For example, to strengthen the monitoring of overload and limit and fuel consumption limits. At present, the heavy truck market is not good, but all companies are aware that the State III or National IV is an inevitable trend. Therefore, even if the implementation of the national IV standard, users can accept it.
There are indeed uncertainties in the actual operation. For example, CCTV reported the ills of the logistics industry. Everyone knows these phenomena, but there is no cure. In the final analysis, it is a matter of policy enforcement.
In September 2010, Guangdong Province reported that it was going to implement the National IV standard and finally it was over. There was no news till now. If the enforcement of policies is strengthened, it may have a certain stimulating effect on market sales. If the implementation of the policy is not enough, there will be no obvious effect.
It will take a long time for products sold on the market to be completely upgraded to the National IV standard. For users, the cost from State III to State IV is mainly to increase costs, and users and enterprises are not willing to accept it. If enforcement is implemented, even fraudulent practices may occur, and the state must integrate the actual situation with the implementation of policies.
The rise in the second half is not too high
Because of this, for the expected increase in the commercial vehicle market in the second half of 2011, the industry generally believes that it will not be too high. Nowadays the situation is very bad. Banks are shrinking. Most of the projects have not been approved, and many users have not worked. The implementation of the National IV Standard at this time cannot be said to have no stimulating effect, but the increase will not be too high.
The shrinkage of bank loans has a greater impact on the heavy truck industry. From the viewpoint of the development of the economic situation in 2010, there should be a recovery in 2011. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, it is still far from the expectation, which directly affects the development of the entire commercial vehicle industry.
The most obvious feature of the freight market in 2011 was the oversupply of vehicles. At present, domestic refined oil prices and transportation costs have been rising. Freight prices alone have not risen. This clearly shows that the supply of vehicles exceeds demand, and that the domestic economy does not. The strong growth appears to be the cause of these two factors that caused the 2011 market not to be hot enough.
From the policy point of view, the second half of 2011 may be relatively better. In the first half of the year, both the financial policy and auto industry policies are adjusting. In the second half of the year, they will tend to be stable and will not change much. This may stimulate the market in the second half of the year.
The overall situation in 2011 is not too bad and it is normal. If the increase in 2011 is higher than in 2010, it should be said that the entire industry is not normal. At present, the entire market situation is undergoing a rational transformation. For example, there are few project start-up projects, and the cost of input is so large that bank loans are limited. There are many uncertain factors in the market, but it is not bad. Now that the plate for truck logistics has grown to a certain scale, it is impossible to shrink it in a short time.
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